Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.63
MA(20): $3.49
MACD: 0.0333
Signal: 0.0296
Days since crossover: 12
Value: 52.86
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 125,121
Avg (20d): 161,163
Ratio: 0.78
%K: 68.87
%D: 57.79
ADX: 14.55
+DI: 17.42
-DI: 15.11
Value: -31.13
Upper: 3.85
Middle: 3.49
Lower: 3.12
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.110 EUR/MWh (+0.111). JKM prices increased to 12.460 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.350 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-13
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-13
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-13
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.110 |
| AUG 25 | 12.408 |
| SEP 25 | 12.557 |
| OCT 25 | 12.705 |
| NOV 25 | 12.930 |
| DEC 25 | 13.036 |
| JAN 26 | 13.078 |
| FEB 26 | 13.061 |
| MAR 26 | 12.862 |
| APR 26 | 11.994 |
| MAY 26 | 11.686 |
| JUN 26 | 11.587 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.460 |
| AUG 25 | 12.885 |
| SEP 25 | 12.880 |
| OCT 25 | 12.915 |
| NOV 25 | 13.095 |
| DEC 25 | 13.400 |
| JAN 26 | 13.525 |
| FEB 26 | 13.460 |
| MAR 26 | 13.035 |
| APR 26 | 12.115 |
| MAY 26 | 11.890 |
| JUN 26 | 11.865 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-13 | $3.47 | $3.19 | $3.75 |
| 2025-06-14 | $3.48 | $3.2 | $3.76 |
| 2025-06-15 | $3.49 | $3.21 | $3.77 |
| 2025-06-16 | $3.49 | $3.21 | $3.77 |
| 2025-06-17 | $3.49 | $3.21 | $3.77 |
The current market sentiment is neutral, with a fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD, indicating a slight decrease of 1.70 BCFD. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.56 and resistance at 3.72. Traders should monitor the ML price forecast, which indicates a potential downward movement of 0.52% for the next day. Given the prevailing cooling demand across regions, short-term opportunities may arise if prices approach support levels, while risks could increase if prices breach resistance.
The market sentiment is currently neutral, but the fundamental balance indicates a decrease in demand. Producers should consider adjusting production plans in light of the low heating demand expected, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Hedging strategies may need to account for the potential price decline indicated by the ML forecast. Additionally, the news sentiment surrounding oil supply disruptions may present both risks and opportunities in production and pricing strategies.
With the cooling demand dominating the current outlook, consumers can expect stable pricing in the short term. However, the fundamental balance shows a decrease in supply, which could lead to potential cost fluctuations if demand unexpectedly rises. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for potential volatility in the market, particularly as the ML forecast suggests a slight price decrease.
The current market picture indicates a neutral sentiment with moderate bullish indicators. The fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD suggests a slight tightening in the market. Key driving factors include a strong cooling demand across regions and mixed news sentiment regarding supply disruptions. Analysts should monitor the potential shifts in market sentiment as geopolitical tensions and weather patterns evolve, which may influence both supply and demand dynamics.