Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.62
MA(20): $3.5
MACD: 0.0362
Signal: 0.0306
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 54.38
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 8,649
Avg (20d): 159,315
Ratio: 0.05
%K: 75.49
%D: 63.71
ADX: 14.97
+DI: 21.36
-DI: 14.1
Value: -24.51
Upper: 3.87
Middle: 3.5
Lower: 3.14
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.393 EUR/MWh (+0.283). JKM prices increased to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.044). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.111 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-15
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-15
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-15
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.393 |
| AUG 25 | 12.969 |
| SEP 25 | 13.109 |
| OCT 25 | 13.244 |
| NOV 25 | 13.448 |
| DEC 25 | 13.547 |
| JAN 26 | 13.589 |
| FEB 26 | 13.583 |
| MAR 26 | 13.357 |
| APR 26 | 12.401 |
| MAY 26 | 12.043 |
| JUN 26 | 11.928 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 13.385 |
| SEP 25 | 13.325 |
| OCT 25 | 13.380 |
| NOV 25 | 13.540 |
| DEC 25 | 13.815 |
| JAN 26 | 13.950 |
| FEB 26 | 13.895 |
| MAR 26 | 13.445 |
| APR 26 | 12.445 |
| MAY 26 | 12.145 |
| JUN 26 | 12.105 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | $3.58 | $3.3 | $3.86 |
| 2025-06-15 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-16 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-17 | $3.6 | $3.31 | $3.88 |
| 2025-06-18 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
The current market sentiment is neutral, with a technical score of 2/5, indicating moderate bullishness. Traders should be aware of the Fibonacci support level at 3.56 and resistance at 3.72. The ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.06%, with a range between 3.3 and 3.86. This presents short-term trading opportunities, but caution is advised due to the potential for volatility driven by external factors, particularly geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices.
Producers should consider the fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD with a notable change of -1.70. This indicates a tightening supply situation that could impact production planning. The neutral sentiment surrounding natural gas, alongside positive headlines related to storage increases, suggests that maintaining an agile hedging strategy may be beneficial in navigating potential price fluctuations. Additionally, the cooling demand across regions indicates a stable market environment for gas producers.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market exhibits neutral sentiment. The high cooling demand reflected in the weather outlook suggests an increase in energy consumption, which could affect pricing. With the fundamental balance tightening, procurement strategies should factor in potential supply reliability risks. Monitoring the weather outlook is crucial, as ongoing cooling trends may lead to increased demand for natural gas and electricity, impacting overall costs.
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment with a moderately bullish technical outlook. Key driving factors include the cooling demand across all regions, as indicated by the weather forecasts, and the geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply scenario, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor these trends as they may lead to shifts in outlook, particularly if geopolitical issues escalate or if weather patterns change.