Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.63
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: 0.0425
Signal: 0.0319
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 56.81
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,463
Avg (20d): 158,956
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 87.52
%D: 67.72
ADX: 14.89
+DI: 20.95
-DI: 14.17
Value: -12.48
Upper: 3.88
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 3.14
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.393 EUR/MWh (+0.283). JKM prices increased to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.044). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.111 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-16
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.393 |
| AUG 25 | 12.969 |
| SEP 25 | 13.109 |
| OCT 25 | 13.244 |
| NOV 25 | 13.448 |
| DEC 25 | 13.547 |
| JAN 26 | 13.589 |
| FEB 26 | 13.583 |
| MAR 26 | 13.357 |
| APR 26 | 12.401 |
| MAY 26 | 12.043 |
| JUN 26 | 11.928 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 13.385 |
| SEP 25 | 13.325 |
| OCT 25 | 13.380 |
| NOV 25 | 13.540 |
| DEC 25 | 13.815 |
| JAN 26 | 13.950 |
| FEB 26 | 13.895 |
| MAR 26 | 13.445 |
| APR 26 | 12.445 |
| MAY 26 | 12.145 |
| JUN 26 | 12.105 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | $3.58 | $3.3 | $3.86 |
| 2025-06-15 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-16 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-17 | $3.6 | $3.31 | $3.88 |
| 2025-06-18 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish sentiment with a technical score of 2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.72 and resistance at 3.95, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.07%, which could present short-term trading opportunities, particularly if prices test the support level. Volatility may increase as traders react to cooling demand forecasts across all regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest where cooling degree days (CDD) are high.
The fundamental balance is currently at 14.50 BCFD, showing a decrease of 1.70, which may affect production strategies. Producers should consider hedging strategies in light of the positive sentiment for natural gas (+0.700) and crude oil (+0.700), as well as the potential for increased cooling demand due to the weather outlook. The geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil supply could also necessitate adjustments in production plans to mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy pricing, particularly as the weather outlook indicates high cooling demand. The cooling degree days (CDD) are significantly high across all regions, which may drive up natural gas prices. With the fundamental balance showing a decrease, supply reliability could become a concern. It may be prudent for consumers to explore procurement strategies or hedging options to mitigate exposure to rising costs.
The current market landscape is characterized by strong demand sentiment for natural gas and crude oil, driven by high cooling demand and geopolitical tensions. The fundamental balance reflects tightening supply, which may lead to upward pressure on prices. Analysts should monitor the convergence of these factors as they could signal shifts in market dynamics, particularly if geopolitical risks escalate further or if demand patterns change due to unexpected weather events.