Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.63
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: 0.0425
Signal: 0.0318
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 56.78
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,487
Avg (20d): 158,957
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 87.37
%D: 67.67
ADX: 14.89
+DI: 20.95
-DI: 14.17
Value: -12.63
Upper: 3.88
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 3.14
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.393 EUR/MWh (+0.283). JKM prices increased to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.044). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.111 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-16
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.393 |
| AUG 25 | 12.969 |
| SEP 25 | 13.109 |
| OCT 25 | 13.244 |
| NOV 25 | 13.448 |
| DEC 25 | 13.547 |
| JAN 26 | 13.589 |
| FEB 26 | 13.583 |
| MAR 26 | 13.357 |
| APR 26 | 12.401 |
| MAY 26 | 12.043 |
| JUN 26 | 11.928 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 13.385 |
| SEP 25 | 13.325 |
| OCT 25 | 13.380 |
| NOV 25 | 13.540 |
| DEC 25 | 13.815 |
| JAN 26 | 13.950 |
| FEB 26 | 13.895 |
| MAR 26 | 13.445 |
| APR 26 | 12.445 |
| MAY 26 | 12.145 |
| JUN 26 | 12.105 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | $3.58 | $3.3 | $3.86 |
| 2025-06-15 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-16 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-17 | $3.6 | $3.31 | $3.88 |
| 2025-06-18 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
The market sentiment is bullish overall, with a sentiment score of +0.433. However, the technical indicators show a moderately bullish outlook with a score of 2/5. The Fibonacci support is at 3.72 and resistance at 3.95, indicating potential price action within this range.
The ML price forecast suggests a slight downward movement of 0.07%, with a predicted range of 3.3 to 3.86. Traders should be cautious of volatility around these levels, particularly given the cooling demand driven by the weather outlook, which is expected to dominate the market.
The fundamental balance indicates a slight tightening with a balance of 14.50 BCFD and a change of -1.70. This could impact production planning, as producers may want to adjust output in response to the bullish sentiment surrounding natural gas prices, driven by increased cooling demand.
Hedging strategies should take into account the potential for price fluctuations, especially given the geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil. The news sentiment surrounding supply disruptions could create opportunities to optimize hedging positions.
With high cooling demand expected across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and electricity. The overall market sentiment is bullish, which could lead to higher prices in the near term.
Supply reliability risks are moderate, given the current fundamental balance. Consumers should consider procurement strategies that account for potential price increases driven by cooling demand and geopolitical factors affecting supply.
The energy market is currently influenced by several factors, with the strongest driving force being bullish sentiment towards natural gas due to increased cooling demand. The technical indicators suggest a moderately bullish outlook, while the fundamental balance indicates a slight tightening.
Analysts should monitor the geopolitical landscape closely, as tensions in the Middle East could shift market dynamics significantly. The combination of weather forecasts and supply-demand fundamentals will be crucial in determining the short-term outlook.