Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.63
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: 0.0433
Signal: 0.032
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 57.06
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,741
Avg (20d): 154,592
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 88.87
%D: 68.17
ADX: 14.89
+DI: 20.95
-DI: 14.17
Value: -11.13
Upper: 3.88
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 3.14
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.393 EUR/MWh (+0.283). JKM prices increased to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.044). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.111 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-16
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.393 |
| AUG 25 | 12.969 |
| SEP 25 | 13.109 |
| OCT 25 | 13.244 |
| NOV 25 | 13.448 |
| DEC 25 | 13.547 |
| JAN 26 | 13.589 |
| FEB 26 | 13.583 |
| MAR 26 | 13.357 |
| APR 26 | 12.401 |
| MAY 26 | 12.043 |
| JUN 26 | 11.928 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 13.385 |
| SEP 25 | 13.325 |
| OCT 25 | 13.380 |
| NOV 25 | 13.540 |
| DEC 25 | 13.815 |
| JAN 26 | 13.950 |
| FEB 26 | 13.895 |
| MAR 26 | 13.445 |
| APR 26 | 12.445 |
| MAY 26 | 12.145 |
| JUN 26 | 12.105 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-17 | $3.74 | $3.45 | $4.02 |
| 2025-06-18 | $3.75 | $3.46 | $4.03 |
| 2025-06-19 | $3.76 | $3.47 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-20 | $3.75 | $3.47 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-21 | $3.74 | $3.45 | $4.02 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish outlook with a Fibonacci support level at 3.72 and resistance at 3.95. Traders should be cautious of the downward ML price forecast of 0.29%, indicating potential volatility. The fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD (down by 1.70) may present short-term trading opportunities, especially if cooling demand persists across regions. Monitoring regional cooling degree days (CDDs), which are notably high, could provide insight into price movements.
Producers should consider the current fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD as it indicates a slight decrease in supply. The bullish market sentiment (+0.467) surrounding crude oil, driven by geopolitical tensions, may affect pricing strategies. Producers might want to reassess their hedging strategies in light of potential supply disruptions due to the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, as highlighted in recent news. Additionally, the anticipated high cooling demand could lead to increased production needs.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains positive. The forecasted high cooling demand may lead to increased prices, especially for natural gas, which has seen a recent uptick. With a fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD, supply reliability could be impacted. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for potential price increases driven by weather-related demand spikes.
The market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish sentiment and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the crude oil sector. The fundamental balance indicates a slight contraction in supply, while high cooling degree days across multiple regions suggest increased demand for natural gas. Analysts should closely monitor the weather outlook and its impact on consumption patterns, as well as the ML price forecast indicating potential volatility in the short term. These factors could lead to shifts in market sentiment and pricing dynamics.