Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.63
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: 0.0444
Signal: 0.0322
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 57.45
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 3,706
Avg (20d): 154,690
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 90.98
%D: 68.87
ADX: 15.08
+DI: 21.89
-DI: 14.0
Value: -9.02
Upper: 3.88
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.393 EUR/MWh (+0.283). JKM prices increased to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.044). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.111 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-16
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.393 |
| AUG 25 | 12.969 |
| SEP 25 | 13.109 |
| OCT 25 | 13.244 |
| NOV 25 | 13.448 |
| DEC 25 | 13.547 |
| JAN 26 | 13.589 |
| FEB 26 | 13.583 |
| MAR 26 | 13.357 |
| APR 26 | 12.401 |
| MAY 26 | 12.043 |
| JUN 26 | 11.928 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 13.385 |
| SEP 25 | 13.325 |
| OCT 25 | 13.380 |
| NOV 25 | 13.540 |
| DEC 25 | 13.815 |
| JAN 26 | 13.950 |
| FEB 26 | 13.895 |
| MAR 26 | 13.445 |
| APR 26 | 12.445 |
| MAY 26 | 12.145 |
| JUN 26 | 12.105 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-17 | $3.74 | $3.45 | $4.02 |
| 2025-06-18 | $3.75 | $3.46 | $4.03 |
| 2025-06-19 | $3.76 | $3.47 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-20 | $3.75 | $3.47 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-21 | $3.74 | $3.45 | $4.02 |
Current market conditions show a bullish sentiment with an overall score of 2/5 on technical indicators. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.72, while resistance is found at 3.95. Traders should be cautious as the ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.29% within the range of 3.45 to 4.02. This suggests a possibility of volatility, especially near the resistance level, presenting both opportunities and risks for short-term trading strategies.
With a fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD and a decrease of -1.70, producers should assess their production planning and consider hedging strategies. The positive sentiment towards natural gas, reflected by a sentiment score of +0.700, indicates a favorable market for natural gas producers. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could affect supply reliability and introduce volatility in pricing.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment leans positive, particularly for natural gas due to increased cooling demand. The weather outlook indicates high cooling demand across all regions, which may lead to increased prices. With a fundamental balance tightening, procurement strategies should be evaluated to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability. Monitoring price movements within the forecasted range of 3.45 to 4.02 will be crucial for budgeting and hedging decisions.
The market presents a complex picture with a bullish sentiment overall, driven by high cooling demand and geopolitical uncertainties impacting oil prices. The fundamental balance indicates a slight tightening, while the technical indicators suggest cautious optimism. Key drivers include natural gas demand due to weather forecasts and geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply. Analysts should monitor these factors closely as they may lead to shifts in market sentiment and price direction in the coming weeks.