Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.68
MA(20): $3.57
MACD: 0.0841
Signal: 0.0472
Days since crossover: 15
Value: 63.27
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,602
Avg (20d): 150,683
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 97.08
%D: 93.32
ADX: 17.57
+DI: 27.45
-DI: 12.54
Value: -2.92
Upper: 3.97
Middle: 3.57
Lower: 3.18
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.592 EUR/MWh (+0.172). JKM prices remained stable to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.088 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-18
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-18
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-18
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.592 |
| AUG 25 | 13.448 |
| SEP 25 | 13.597 |
| OCT 25 | 13.735 |
| NOV 25 | 13.955 |
| DEC 25 | 14.056 |
| JAN 26 | 14.092 |
| FEB 26 | 14.067 |
| MAR 26 | 13.836 |
| APR 26 | 12.744 |
| MAY 26 | 12.359 |
| JUN 26 | 12.237 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 14.005 |
| SEP 25 | 13.945 |
| OCT 25 | 14.000 |
| NOV 25 | 14.110 |
| DEC 25 | 14.395 |
| JAN 26 | 14.495 |
| FEB 26 | 14.420 |
| MAR 26 | 13.945 |
| APR 26 | 12.815 |
| MAY 26 | 12.510 |
| JUN 26 | 12.465 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-19 | $3.99 | $3.7 | $4.27 |
| 2025-06-20 | $3.99 | $3.71 | $4.28 |
| 2025-06-21 | $3.99 | $3.7 | $4.27 |
| 2025-06-22 | $3.98 | $3.7 | $4.27 |
| 2025-06-23 | $3.97 | $3.68 | $4.26 |
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 1/5. Traders should be cautious as prices are hovering around the Fibonacci support of 3.95 and resistance at 4.25. The fundamental balance is at 14.50 BCFD with a recent decline of -1.70, suggesting potential volatility in the short term.
The weather outlook indicates high cooling demand across all regions, particularly in the West with a CDD of 23.0, which may support price stability. However, the ML forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.03% in the next day, with a trading range of 3.7 to 4.27.
With the market sentiment at +0.700, producers are in a favorable position. The fundamental balance indicates a decrease in supply, which could lead to higher prices if demand remains strong. Producers should consider adjusting production planning and hedging strategies accordingly to capitalize on potential price increases.
Recent news highlights a significant rise in natural gas prices due to lower output and increased demand, suggesting that producers may benefit from maintaining or increasing production levels to meet market needs.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas pricing, with recent trends indicating a rise towards 10-week highs. The weather outlook suggests sustained high cooling demand, especially in the West, which may lead to increased consumption costs.
It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with rising prices and ensure supply reliability.
The current market picture presents a mix of bullish sentiment driven by strong demand and supply constraints. The fundamental balance is tightening, with a notable decline in supply. Analysts should closely monitor the weather patterns and demand forecasts, particularly as cooling demand remains high across all regions.
Furthermore, the ML forecasts suggest a slight downward price movement in the short term, which may indicate a temporary shift in market dynamics. Overall, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical factors and weather impacts that could shift sentiment rapidly.