Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.71
MA(20): $3.61
MACD: 0.1113
Signal: 0.0602
Days since crossover: 16
Value: 66.02
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 37,108
Avg (20d): 153,865
Ratio: 0.24
%K: 97.84
%D: 96.26
ADX: 19.5
+DI: 29.85
-DI: 11.65
Value: -2.16
Upper: 4.05
Middle: 3.61
Lower: 3.16
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.505 EUR/MWh (-0.087). JKM prices decreased to 13.880 USD/MMBtu (-0.125). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.375 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-19
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-19
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-19
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.505 |
| AUG 25 | 13.239 |
| SEP 25 | 13.408 |
| OCT 25 | 13.548 |
| NOV 25 | 13.778 |
| DEC 25 | 13.885 |
| JAN 26 | 13.924 |
| FEB 26 | 13.912 |
| MAR 26 | 13.675 |
| APR 26 | 12.587 |
| MAY 26 | 12.231 |
| JUN 26 | 12.103 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.880 |
| SEP 25 | 13.815 |
| OCT 25 | 13.845 |
| NOV 25 | 13.945 |
| DEC 25 | 14.240 |
| JAN 26 | 14.365 |
| FEB 26 | 14.290 |
| MAR 26 | 13.845 |
| APR 26 | 12.710 |
| MAY 26 | 12.425 |
| JUN 26 | 12.370 |
| JUL 26 | 12.470 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-19 | $3.99 | $3.7 | $4.27 |
| 2025-06-20 | $3.99 | $3.71 | $4.28 |
| 2025-06-21 | $3.99 | $3.7 | $4.27 |
| 2025-06-22 | $3.98 | $3.7 | $4.27 |
| 2025-06-23 | $3.97 | $3.68 | $4.26 |
The current market sentiment is bullish, supported by a positive news sentiment score of +0.725. However, technical indicators show a neutral stance with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.95 with resistance at 4.25. Traders should monitor the potential for price fluctuations within the forecasted range of 3.7 to 4.27, as the ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.03%. This could present short-term opportunities or risks depending on market movements.
With a fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD showing a decrease of 1.70, producers may consider adjusting production levels to align with the current demand trends. The bullish sentiment surrounding natural gas, driven by lower output and higher demand, suggests a favorable market environment for pricing. Producers should evaluate their hedging strategies to capitalize on the current sentiment while preparing for potential market volatility in the near term.
Given the weather outlook indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand across regions, consumers should brace for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bullish sentiment in the market, alongside reports of rising prices due to increased demand, may lead to higher costs. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and ensure supply reliability.
The energy market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment, with a strong focus on natural gas due to lower output and rising demand. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening market, while technical indicators remain neutral. Analysts should note the significant influence of weather patterns on demand and pricing, particularly in cooling-dominant regions. This convergence of factors suggests a potential shift in market dynamics that warrants close monitoring for future outlook adjustments.