Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.69
MA(20): $3.6
MACD: 0.092
Signal: 0.0563
Days since crossover: 16
Value: 57.94
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 0
Avg (20d): 143,816
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 56.69
%D: 82.54
ADX: 19.66
+DI: 29.44
-DI: 10.85
Value: -43.31
Upper: 4.0
Middle: 3.6
Lower: 3.19
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.768 EUR/MWh (+0.263). JKM prices increased to 14.255 USD/MMBtu (+0.375). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.487 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-21
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-21
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-21
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.768 |
| AUG 25 | 14.024 |
| SEP 25 | 14.265 |
| OCT 25 | 14.401 |
| NOV 25 | 14.565 |
| DEC 25 | 14.636 |
| JAN 26 | 14.654 |
| FEB 26 | 14.632 |
| MAR 26 | 14.375 |
| APR 26 | 13.054 |
| MAY 26 | 12.646 |
| JUN 26 | 12.525 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 14.255 |
| SEP 25 | 14.340 |
| OCT 25 | 14.375 |
| NOV 25 | 14.455 |
| DEC 25 | 14.650 |
| JAN 26 | 14.650 |
| FEB 26 | 14.395 |
| MAR 26 | 13.630 |
| APR 26 | 12.930 |
| MAY 26 | 12.660 |
| JUN 26 | 12.605 |
| JUL 26 | 12.845 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | $3.86 | $3.58 | $4.13 |
| 2025-06-22 | $3.85 | $3.57 | $4.12 |
| 2025-06-23 | $3.83 | $3.55 | $4.1 |
| 2025-06-24 | $3.83 | $3.55 | $4.1 |
| 2025-06-25 | $3.84 | $3.56 | $4.12 |
The market exhibits a bullish sentiment with a score of +0.600. Technical indicators suggest a support level at 3.72 and a resistance level at 3.95. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.25%, with a trading range of 3.58 to 4.13. This convergence of indicators suggests short-term opportunities for traders, but be cautious of volatility due to geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil prices.
Current market dynamics indicate a bullish sentiment, particularly in natural gas, driven by demand outpacing supply with a balance of 14.50 BCFD. Producers should consider adjusting production planning in light of lower output and higher demand. The geopolitical risks highlighted in the news may necessitate a review of hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as natural gas prices have recently climbed to a 10-week high. The cooling demand forecast suggests that residential and commercial heating demands will remain low, but moderate cooling demand in power generation could impact energy costs. It may be prudent for consumers to assess procurement strategies and consider hedging against price increases in the near term.
The current market landscape is shaped by a combination of bullish sentiment and fundamental supply-demand dynamics. The strong demand for natural gas, alongside geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil, represents the strongest driving factors. Analysts should monitor the convergence of these trends, particularly as weather forecasts indicate continued cooling demand, which could shift market dynamics rapidly.