Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.72
MA(20): $3.63
MACD: 0.1012
Signal: 0.0653
Days since crossover: 17
Value: 59.68
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 4,866
Avg (20d): 139,460
Ratio: 0.03
%K: 65.76
%D: 73.38
ADX: 21.56
+DI: 28.32
-DI: 10.44
Value: -34.24
Upper: 4.02
Middle: 3.63
Lower: 3.24
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.768 EUR/MWh (+0.263). JKM prices increased to 14.255 USD/MMBtu (+0.375). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.487 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-22
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-22
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-22
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.768 |
| AUG 25 | 14.024 |
| SEP 25 | 14.265 |
| OCT 25 | 14.401 |
| NOV 25 | 14.565 |
| DEC 25 | 14.636 |
| JAN 26 | 14.654 |
| FEB 26 | 14.632 |
| MAR 26 | 14.375 |
| APR 26 | 13.054 |
| MAY 26 | 12.646 |
| JUN 26 | 12.525 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 14.255 |
| SEP 25 | 14.340 |
| OCT 25 | 14.375 |
| NOV 25 | 14.455 |
| DEC 25 | 14.650 |
| JAN 26 | 14.650 |
| FEB 26 | 14.395 |
| MAR 26 | 13.630 |
| APR 26 | 12.930 |
| MAY 26 | 12.660 |
| JUN 26 | 12.605 |
| JUL 26 | 12.845 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | $3.86 | $3.58 | $4.13 |
| 2025-06-22 | $3.85 | $3.57 | $4.12 |
| 2025-06-23 | $3.83 | $3.55 | $4.1 |
| 2025-06-24 | $3.83 | $3.55 | $4.1 |
| 2025-06-25 | $3.84 | $3.56 | $4.12 |
The market indicators suggest a moderately bullish sentiment, with a technical score of 2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.72 and resistance at 3.95. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.25% with a trading range of 3.58 to 4.13.
Given the high cooling demand across regions, particularly in the West (CDD: 28.5), there may be short-term trading opportunities. However, traders should remain vigilant about potential volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions affecting supply.
The fundamental balance at 14.50 BCFD with a change of -1.70 indicates a tightening supply, which could support higher prices. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies.
The overall market sentiment is positive, with a sentiment score of +0.600 across key commodities. Monitoring the high cooling demand may also affect operational decisions, particularly in regions experiencing extreme temperatures.
With the high cooling demand forecasted, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices. The current price range of 3.58 to 4.13 suggests that procurement strategies may need to be revisited to manage expenses effectively.
Additionally, the tightening supply indicated by the fundamental balance may pose reliability risks in energy supply, warranting consideration for hedging or long-term contracts to mitigate potential disruptions.
The data presents a bullish market sentiment with a sentiment score of +0.600, primarily driven by the high cooling demand across various regions. The technical indicators reflect a moderately bullish outlook with Fibonacci levels suggesting potential price movements.
Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments, especially related to oil supply risks, as highlighted in recent news articles. The convergence of tightening supply and increased demand positions the market for potential shifts, necessitating ongoing analysis to identify emerging trends and opportunities.