Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.7
MA(20): $3.63
MACD: 0.0668
Signal: 0.0629
Days since crossover: 18
Value: 48.36
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,177
Avg (20d): 151,105
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 16.4
%D: 36.12
ADX: 19.8
+DI: 25.02
-DI: 18.8
Value: -83.6
Upper: 3.98
Middle: 3.63
Lower: 3.28
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.739 EUR/MWh (-0.029). JKM prices increased to 14.460 USD/MMBtu (+0.205). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.721 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-24
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-24
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-24
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.739 |
| AUG 25 | 13.881 |
| SEP 25 | 14.076 |
| OCT 25 | 14.205 |
| NOV 25 | 14.381 |
| DEC 25 | 14.454 |
| JAN 26 | 14.472 |
| FEB 26 | 14.445 |
| MAR 26 | 14.183 |
| APR 26 | 12.953 |
| MAY 26 | 12.574 |
| JUN 26 | 12.464 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 14.460 |
| SEP 25 | 14.575 |
| OCT 25 | 14.565 |
| NOV 25 | 14.605 |
| DEC 25 | 14.830 |
| JAN 26 | 14.920 |
| FEB 26 | 14.850 |
| MAR 26 | 14.395 |
| APR 26 | 13.095 |
| MAY 26 | 12.750 |
| JUN 26 | 12.740 |
| JUL 26 | 12.810 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-25 | $3.53 | $3.25 | $3.81 |
| 2025-06-26 | $3.52 | $3.23 | $3.8 |
| 2025-06-27 | $3.52 | $3.24 | $3.8 |
| 2025-06-28 | $3.53 | $3.25 | $3.82 |
| 2025-06-29 | $3.55 | $3.27 | $3.83 |
Current market conditions suggest a neutral sentiment with a Fibonacci support level at 3.56 and resistance at 3.72. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.20%, which could lead to short-term trading opportunities as prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 3.25 to 3.81. Traders should be cautious of volatility given the bearish overall market sentiment.
The fundamental balance indicates a decrease in demand by 1.70 BCFD, which may impact production planning. With a bearish sentiment prevailing in the market, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. The cooling weather patterns are expected to reduce heating demand, leading to further impacts on natural gas and heating oil pricing.
With the weather outlook indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish sentiment in the market suggests that prices may decrease, but consumers should remain vigilant about supply reliability risks, especially given the current forecasts predicting lower demand despite a heat wave.
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven primarily by forecasts of lower demand and easing geopolitical risks. The fundamental balance and the technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, with key resistance levels at 3.72 and support at 3.56. Analysts should focus on the implications of the cooling weather on energy consumption and the potential for shifts in market dynamics as geopolitical tensions stabilize.