Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.66
MA(20): $3.63
MACD: 0.0079
Signal: 0.0476
Days since crossover: 2
Value: 41.01
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 5,310
Avg (20d): 145,578
Ratio: 0.04
%K: 10.85
%D: 9.11
ADX: 17.92
+DI: 21.27
-DI: 27.29
Value: -89.15
Upper: 3.96
Middle: 3.63
Lower: 3.3
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.431 EUR/MWh (-0.010). JKM prices increased to 13.540 USD/MMBtu (+0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.109 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-26
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-26
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-26
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.431 |
| AUG 25 | 12.246 |
| SEP 25 | 12.498 |
| OCT 25 | 12.659 |
| NOV 25 | 12.905 |
| DEC 25 | 13.016 |
| JAN 26 | 13.055 |
| FEB 26 | 13.044 |
| MAR 26 | 12.842 |
| APR 26 | 12.026 |
| MAY 26 | 11.719 |
| JUN 26 | 11.630 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.540 |
| SEP 25 | 12.920 |
| OCT 25 | 12.950 |
| NOV 25 | 13.090 |
| DEC 25 | 13.325 |
| JAN 26 | 13.465 |
| FEB 26 | 13.400 |
| MAR 26 | 13.000 |
| APR 26 | 12.150 |
| MAY 26 | 12.045 |
| JUN 26 | 12.030 |
| JUL 26 | 12.215 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-26 | $3.41 | $3.12 | $3.69 |
| 2025-06-27 | $3.41 | $3.12 | $3.69 |
| 2025-06-28 | $3.41 | $3.13 | $3.69 |
| 2025-06-29 | $3.43 | $3.14 | $3.71 |
| 2025-06-30 | $3.44 | $3.16 | $3.72 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of 0/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 3.18, while resistance is noted at 3.37. The fundamental balance shows a significant decrease of -5.80 BCFD, indicating potential volatility.
With a bearish overall market sentiment score of -0.450, traders should be cautious of potential downward price movements. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.02%, with a trading range of 3.12 to 3.69. Short-term opportunities may arise from price fluctuations near the Fibonacci levels.
With a bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas prices, which have recently dropped 4% to a four-week low, producers should reassess their production planning and hedging strategies. The fundamental balance indicates a significant shift, which could impact output decisions.
Producers should monitor the weather outlook, which shows high cooling demand across all regions, potentially leading to increased consumption in the short term. However, the overall market sentiment remains a concern, especially with negative sentiment in the crude oil sector.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment is currently bearish. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand but high cooling demand, which could affect pricing strategies for utilities.
Given the fundamental balance showing a decrease, consumers may experience reliability risks in supply. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies that mitigate exposure to price volatility in the coming weeks.
The current market landscape is characterized by a bearish sentiment with a significant focus on natural gas and crude oil prices. The fundamental balance reflects a decline that could signal shifts in supply-demand dynamics.
Key driving factors include a weather outlook favoring cooling demand and a ML price forecast indicating a slight decline. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their implications on supply stability, particularly in the crude oil market.