Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.68
MA(20): $3.64
MACD: 0.0169
Signal: 0.0409
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 53.98
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 230,496
Avg (20d): 159,329
Ratio: 1.45
%K: 56.9
%D: 22.61
ADX: 17.37
+DI: 28.29
-DI: 23.06
Value: -43.1
Upper: 3.98
Middle: 3.64
Lower: 3.3
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.380 EUR/MWh (-0.014). JKM prices decreased to 13.195 USD/MMBtu (-0.130). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.815 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-28
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-28
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-28
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.380 |
| AUG 25 | 11.582 |
| SEP 25 | 11.825 |
| OCT 25 | 11.990 |
| NOV 25 | 12.313 |
| DEC 25 | 12.452 |
| JAN 26 | 12.517 |
| FEB 26 | 12.520 |
| MAR 26 | 12.347 |
| APR 26 | 11.711 |
| MAY 26 | 11.475 |
| JUN 26 | 11.396 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.195 |
| SEP 25 | 12.175 |
| OCT 25 | 12.275 |
| NOV 25 | 12.450 |
| DEC 25 | 12.775 |
| JAN 26 | 12.920 |
| FEB 26 | 12.880 |
| MAR 26 | 12.510 |
| APR 26 | 11.850 |
| MAY 26 | 11.710 |
| JUN 26 | 11.705 |
| JUL 26 | 11.860 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | $3.69 | $3.37 | $4.02 |
| 2025-06-29 | $3.72 | $3.39 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-30 | $3.75 | $3.42 | $4.07 |
| 2025-07-01 | $3.77 | $3.44 | $4.09 |
| 2025-07-02 | $3.71 | $3.39 | $4.04 |
Current market conditions suggest neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD, indicating a slight oversupply. With a Fibonacci support level at 3.69 and a resistance at 3.92, traders should be vigilant for price movements near these levels. The ML price forecast indicates a potential downward trend of 1.21%, suggesting short-term opportunities for selling or hedging against further declines. Overall, traders should monitor volatility closely as cooling demand remains high across regions.
Producers should consider the negative sentiment surrounding natural gas, with a sentiment score of -0.600. The fundamental balance indicates a reduction in demand, as evidenced by a high cooling demand but low heating needs. This may necessitate adjustments in production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices. Additionally, the news regarding rising storage levels could further pressure prices, suggesting a need for strategic operational adjustments.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations given the current market sentiment for natural gas. The high cooling demand may lead to increased consumption, impacting procurement strategies. With prices forecasted to trend downward, consumers might find short-term buying opportunities but should remain cautious of supply reliability risks as storage levels rise. Consider implementing hedging strategies to manage future price volatility.
The current market landscape reveals a neutral sentiment overall, with a complex interplay of factors. The fundamental balance suggests a slight oversupply, while the cooling demand is significantly influencing market dynamics across all regions. The bearish outlook for natural gas, coupled with a downward ML forecast, indicates potential shifts in pricing strategies. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical stability and infrastructure developments as key drivers for future market trends.