Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.67
MA(20): $3.65
MACD: 0.0203
Signal: 0.0368
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 51.91
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 5,438
Avg (20d): 153,024
Ratio: 0.04
%K: 48.89
%D: 37.44
ADX: 16.86
+DI: 27.44
-DI: 22.36
Value: -51.11
Upper: 3.98
Middle: 3.65
Lower: 3.33
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.380 EUR/MWh (-0.014). JKM prices decreased to 13.195 USD/MMBtu (-0.130). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.815 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-29
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-29
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-29
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.380 |
| AUG 25 | 11.582 |
| SEP 25 | 11.825 |
| OCT 25 | 11.990 |
| NOV 25 | 12.313 |
| DEC 25 | 12.452 |
| JAN 26 | 12.517 |
| FEB 26 | 12.520 |
| MAR 26 | 12.347 |
| APR 26 | 11.711 |
| MAY 26 | 11.475 |
| JUN 26 | 11.396 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.195 |
| SEP 25 | 12.175 |
| OCT 25 | 12.275 |
| NOV 25 | 12.450 |
| DEC 25 | 12.775 |
| JAN 26 | 12.920 |
| FEB 26 | 12.880 |
| MAR 26 | 12.510 |
| APR 26 | 11.850 |
| MAY 26 | 11.710 |
| JUN 26 | 11.705 |
| JUL 26 | 11.860 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | $3.69 | $3.37 | $4.02 |
| 2025-06-29 | $3.72 | $3.39 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-30 | $3.75 | $3.42 | $4.07 |
| 2025-07-01 | $3.77 | $3.44 | $4.09 |
| 2025-07-02 | $3.71 | $3.39 | $4.04 |
The current market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.233, indicating a potential downward pressure on prices. The technical indicators reflect a neutral stance, with Fibonacci support at 3.53 and resistance at 3.69. With the fundamental balance showing a decrease of 5.80 BCFD, traders should be cautious of volatility in the short term. The ML price forecast suggests a decline of 1.21%, indicating potential opportunities for short positions or hedging against further declines.
The bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for crude oil with a score of -0.300, suggests a need for cautious production planning. The fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD may prompt producers to consider adjusting output levels to avoid oversupply. Hedging strategies could be beneficial to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines given the current news sentiment surrounding supply increases and geopolitical factors.
With a cooling demand forecast and low heating requirements, consumers can expect stable supply conditions. However, the bearish market sentiment and potential price fluctuations necessitate vigilance in procurement strategies. The anticipated price range of 3.37 to 4.02 could influence budgeting and cost management, making it advisable to evaluate hedging options to safeguard against unexpected spikes.
The energy market displays a complex landscape dominated by bearish sentiment and a neutral technical outlook. Key drivers include a fundamental balance that has weakened significantly, alongside cooling demand due to weather forecasts. The ML price forecast indicates a downward trend, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics that analysts should monitor closely for emerging trends and insights.