Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.64
MA(20): $3.64
MACD: 0.003
Signal: 0.0333
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 46.81
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 3,347
Avg (20d): 149,048
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 26.13
%D: 29.86
ADX: 16.5
+DI: 25.67
-DI: 23.18
Value: -73.87
Upper: 3.98
Middle: 3.64
Lower: 3.3
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.380 EUR/MWh (-0.014). JKM prices decreased to 13.195 USD/MMBtu (-0.130). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.815 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-30
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-30
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-30
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.380 |
| AUG 25 | 11.582 |
| SEP 25 | 11.825 |
| OCT 25 | 11.990 |
| NOV 25 | 12.313 |
| DEC 25 | 12.452 |
| JAN 26 | 12.517 |
| FEB 26 | 12.520 |
| MAR 26 | 12.347 |
| APR 26 | 11.711 |
| MAY 26 | 11.475 |
| JUN 26 | 11.396 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.195 |
| SEP 25 | 12.175 |
| OCT 25 | 12.275 |
| NOV 25 | 12.450 |
| DEC 25 | 12.775 |
| JAN 26 | 12.920 |
| FEB 26 | 12.880 |
| MAR 26 | 12.510 |
| APR 26 | 11.850 |
| MAY 26 | 11.710 |
| JUN 26 | 11.705 |
| JUL 26 | 11.860 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-01 | $3.51 | $3.19 | $3.83 |
| 2025-07-02 | $3.53 | $3.21 | $3.85 |
| 2025-07-03 | $3.54 | $3.22 | $3.86 |
| 2025-07-04 | $3.49 | $3.16 | $3.81 |
| 2025-07-05 | $3.52 | $3.2 | $3.85 |
Current market conditions suggest a neutral stance with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate support at 3.37 and resistance at 3.53, presenting potential trading boundaries. With the ML price forecast indicating a 1.54% increase and a trading range of 3.19 to 3.83, traders should watch for volatility around these levels. The overall bearish market sentiment, with a score of -0.400, suggests caution in short-term positions.
The fundamental balance shows a significant decrease to 8.00 BCFD, indicating potential oversupply risks. With bearish sentiment dominating, especially in crude oil (-0.600), producers may need to reassess production levels and consider hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility. Furthermore, the cooling demand reflected in the weather outlook could lead to reduced consumption, impacting revenue forecasts.
With low heating demand expected and a strong cooling demand forecasted, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas prices, driven by mild weather and lower demand, suggests that consumers may find opportunities for lower pricing in the short term. However, the overall market sentiment indicates a need for vigilance regarding supply reliability.
The market landscape is currently influenced by several factors, with a predominant bearish sentiment reflected across key commodities. The technical indicators suggest a neutral outlook, while the fundamental balance indicates a tightening market. Analysts should focus on the implications of the cooling weather patterns and how they may shift demand dynamics, especially for natural gas and crude oil, as these elements could lead to significant market shifts in the near future.