Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.54
MA(20): $3.62
MACD: -0.0155
Signal: 0.0167
Days since crossover: 6
Value: 47.76
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,727
Avg (20d): 151,544
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 29.29
%D: 26.38
ADX: 14.52
+DI: 24.9
-DI: 25.48
Value: -70.71
Upper: 3.97
Middle: 3.62
Lower: 3.26
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices remained stable to 12.380 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 13.105 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.725 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-07-02
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-02
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-02
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.380 |
| AUG 25 | 11.617 |
| SEP 25 | 11.855 |
| OCT 25 | 12.023 |
| NOV 25 | 12.345 |
| DEC 25 | 12.476 |
| JAN 26 | 12.545 |
| FEB 26 | 12.541 |
| MAR 26 | 12.360 |
| APR 26 | 11.664 |
| MAY 26 | 11.419 |
| JUN 26 | 11.347 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.105 |
| SEP 25 | 12.195 |
| OCT 25 | 12.295 |
| NOV 25 | 12.515 |
| DEC 25 | 12.825 |
| JAN 26 | 12.965 |
| FEB 26 | 12.910 |
| MAR 26 | 12.530 |
| APR 26 | 11.810 |
| MAY 26 | 11.625 |
| JUN 26 | 11.625 |
| JUL 26 | 11.790 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-03 | $3.49 | $3.17 | $3.81 |
| 2025-07-04 | $3.43 | $3.11 | $3.75 |
| 2025-07-05 | $3.47 | $3.15 | $3.79 |
| 2025-07-06 | $3.47 | $3.15 | $3.79 |
| 2025-07-07 | $3.46 | $3.14 | $3.78 |
The current market is displaying a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level of 3.35 and resistance at 3.5, which may serve as key thresholds for price movement.
The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward trend of 0.04%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities for traders who can capitalize on price fluctuations within the range of 3.17 to 3.81. However, the overall market sentiment remains bearish, which could introduce volatility in trading strategies.
With a fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD showing a decrease of 5.80, producers should assess their production planning carefully. The bearish sentiment in the market could impact pricing strategies, necessitating robust hedging strategies to mitigate potential revenue fluctuations.
The news sentiment around supply is slightly positive, especially with reports of a smaller-than-average EIA inventory build, but overall, the market sentiment for crude oil is concerning. Producers should remain cautious and consider adjusting production levels in response to the anticipated cooling demand and market expectations.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, particularly with the ongoing high cooling demand across all regions. The low heating demand forecast may provide some relief, but the overall market sentiment suggests that procurement strategies should be revisited.
Given the fundamental balance and the forecast of increased cooling demand, consumers should consider securing contracts ahead of anticipated price movements, especially as the ML price forecast indicates a slight upward trend.
The market is currently influenced by several factors, with the strongest driving forces being bearish sentiment across both crude oil and natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates a significant drop, which could lead to shifts in market dynamics.
Weather patterns showing high cooling demand may provide a temporary bullish outlook for natural gas, but the overall market sentiment suggests caution. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and supply-demand shifts closely, as these could lead to significant outlook changes in the near term.