Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.46
MA(20): $3.59
MACD: -0.0337
Signal: 0.0002
Days since crossover: 8
Value: 45.53
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 16,621
Avg (20d): 147,056
Ratio: 0.11
%K: 19.81
%D: 24.13
ADX: 12.75
+DI: 24.31
-DI: 23.9
Value: -80.19
Upper: 3.96
Middle: 3.59
Lower: 3.22
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.571 EUR/MWh (-0.004). JKM prices decreased to 13.160 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.589 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-05
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-05
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-05
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.571 |
| SEP 25 | 11.832 |
| OCT 25 | 12.049 |
| NOV 25 | 12.419 |
| DEC 25 | 12.566 |
| JAN 26 | 12.635 |
| FEB 26 | 12.631 |
| MAR 26 | 12.456 |
| APR 26 | 11.789 |
| MAY 26 | 11.547 |
| JUN 26 | 11.484 |
| JUL 26 | 11.552 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.160 |
| SEP 25 | 12.260 |
| OCT 25 | 12.330 |
| NOV 25 | 12.615 |
| DEC 25 | 12.925 |
| JAN 26 | 13.070 |
| FEB 26 | 13.015 |
| MAR 26 | 12.645 |
| APR 26 | 11.930 |
| MAY 26 | 11.770 |
| JUN 26 | 11.750 |
| JUL 26 | 11.910 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | $3.42 | $3.1 | $3.74 |
| 2025-07-06 | $3.42 | $3.1 | $3.74 |
| 2025-07-07 | $3.41 | $3.09 | $3.73 |
| 2025-07-08 | $3.42 | $3.1 | $3.74 |
| 2025-07-09 | $3.42 | $3.1 | $3.74 |
Current market conditions present a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support is at 3.35 and resistance at 3.5, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range.
The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward trend of 1.01%, with a range between 3.1 and 3.74. Traders may find short-term opportunities, but should remain cautious due to the overall bearish news sentiment.
The fundamental balance indicates a decrease to 8.00 BCFD (Change: -5.80), suggesting a tightening supply that may impact production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their output strategies accordingly.
Given the bearish market sentiment, particularly in crude oil with a sentiment score of -0.400, hedging strategies should be reevaluated to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations and potential oversupply issues.
The weather outlook shows a predominance of cooling demand across regions, with 15.0 CDD expected. This may lead to increased costs for cooling energy, particularly in the South and West where demand is highest.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations and ensure supply reliability, especially as the market sentiment remains bearish and could impact procurement strategies.
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment across both crude oil and natural gas, with a sentiment score of -0.400. Key driving factors include rising supply, particularly in crude oil, and moderate cooling demand impacting natural gas.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the fundamental balance and the weather outlook, which could shift market dynamics in the near term. The overall sentiment indicates a cautious approach moving forward.