Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.46
MA(20): $3.59
MACD: -0.0337
Signal: 0.0002
Days since crossover: 8
Value: 45.53
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 16,621
Avg (20d): 147,056
Ratio: 0.11
%K: 19.81
%D: 24.13
ADX: 12.75
+DI: 24.31
-DI: 23.9
Value: -80.19
Upper: 3.96
Middle: 3.59
Lower: 3.22
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.571 EUR/MWh (-0.004). JKM prices decreased to 13.160 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.589 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-06
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-06
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-06
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.571 |
| SEP 25 | 11.832 |
| OCT 25 | 12.049 |
| NOV 25 | 12.419 |
| DEC 25 | 12.566 |
| JAN 26 | 12.635 |
| FEB 26 | 12.631 |
| MAR 26 | 12.456 |
| APR 26 | 11.789 |
| MAY 26 | 11.547 |
| JUN 26 | 11.484 |
| JUL 26 | 11.552 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.160 |
| SEP 25 | 12.260 |
| OCT 25 | 12.330 |
| NOV 25 | 12.615 |
| DEC 25 | 12.925 |
| JAN 26 | 13.070 |
| FEB 26 | 13.015 |
| MAR 26 | 12.645 |
| APR 26 | 11.930 |
| MAY 26 | 11.770 |
| JUN 26 | 11.750 |
| JUL 26 | 11.910 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | $3.42 | $3.1 | $3.74 |
| 2025-07-06 | $3.42 | $3.1 | $3.74 |
| 2025-07-07 | $3.41 | $3.09 | $3.73 |
| 2025-07-08 | $3.42 | $3.1 | $3.74 |
| 2025-07-09 | $3.42 | $3.1 | $3.74 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral outlook with a Fibonacci support at 3.35 and resistance at 3.5. This indicates potential price consolidation around these levels. The bearish sentiment, with a score of -0.400, combined with a 1.01% projected rise in the next day, suggests short-term volatility may occur, but traders should remain cautious of the bearish market sentiment.
The fundamental balance is at 8.00 BCFD, showing a decrease of 5.80, indicating potential oversupply concerns. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning and explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with the bearish sentiment impacting crude and natural gas prices, particularly with increasing supply pressures evident in recent news.
With the overall cooling demand expected to dominate, particularly in the Northeast and South, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish market sentiment may lead to supply reliability risks as producers adjust output in response to market conditions. Monitoring storage levels and demand forecasts will be crucial for effective procurement strategies.
The energy market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and neutral technical indicators. The fundamental balance indicates supply pressures, while the weather outlook points to high cooling demand, particularly in key regions. Analysts should focus on the implications of these factors on price movements and potential shifts in market dynamics, especially given the predicted price increase in the short term.