Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.44
MA(20): $3.57
MACD: -0.0398
Signal: -0.0078
Days since crossover: 9
Value: 45.82
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,872
Avg (20d): 131,507
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 20.76
%D: 20.9
ADX: 11.9
+DI: 24.01
-DI: 23.6
Value: -79.24
Upper: 3.94
Middle: 3.57
Lower: 3.2
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.571 EUR/MWh (-0.004). JKM prices decreased to 13.160 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.589 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-07
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-07
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-07
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.571 |
| SEP 25 | 11.832 |
| OCT 25 | 12.049 |
| NOV 25 | 12.419 |
| DEC 25 | 12.566 |
| JAN 26 | 12.635 |
| FEB 26 | 12.631 |
| MAR 26 | 12.456 |
| APR 26 | 11.789 |
| MAY 26 | 11.547 |
| JUN 26 | 11.484 |
| JUL 26 | 11.552 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.160 |
| SEP 25 | 12.260 |
| OCT 25 | 12.330 |
| NOV 25 | 12.615 |
| DEC 25 | 12.925 |
| JAN 26 | 13.070 |
| FEB 26 | 13.015 |
| MAR 26 | 12.645 |
| APR 26 | 11.930 |
| MAY 26 | 11.770 |
| JUN 26 | 11.750 |
| JUL 26 | 11.910 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-08 | $3.41 | $3.09 | $3.73 |
| 2025-07-09 | $3.4 | $3.08 | $3.72 |
| 2025-07-10 | $3.41 | $3.09 | $3.73 |
| 2025-07-11 | $3.41 | $3.09 | $3.73 |
| 2025-07-12 | $3.41 | $3.09 | $3.73 |
The current market indicators suggest a bearish sentiment overall, with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.35, while resistance is noted at 3.5. Given the ML price forecast indicating a potential decline of 0.07%, traders should be cautious about short-term positions and consider the implications of the bearish news sentiment surrounding natural gas, which is at -0.600.
The fundamental balance indicates a significant decrease in demand at 8.00 BCFD, down by 5.80. This could necessitate adjustments in production planning to avoid oversupply. Coupled with the bearish market sentiment and rising output forecasts, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and demand uncertainties.
With the weather outlook showing cooling demand across all regions and low heating demand expected, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the short term. The current bearish sentiment in the natural gas market, coupled with a fundamental balance indicating reduced demand, suggests that procurement strategies may need to be revisited to ensure supply reliability while taking advantage of lower prices.
The market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish sentiment and a fundamental balance reflecting decreased demand. The weather outlook favors cooling demand, which aligns with the overall negative news sentiment, particularly for natural gas. Analysts should monitor these trends closely as they may signal a shift in market dynamics, leading to potential opportunities or challenges in the near future.