Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.43
MA(20): $3.54
MACD: -0.0653
Signal: -0.0255
Days since crossover: 11
Value: 40.63
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 3,078
Avg (20d): 126,499
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 0.94
%D: 12.75
ADX: 12.01
+DI: 20.38
-DI: 27.63
Value: -99.06
Upper: 3.95
Middle: 3.54
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices increased to 11.677 EUR/MWh (+0.118). JKM prices increased to 13.115 USD/MMBtu (+0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.438 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-09
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-09
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-09
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.677 |
| SEP 25 | 11.955 |
| OCT 25 | 12.117 |
| NOV 25 | 12.433 |
| DEC 25 | 12.571 |
| JAN 26 | 12.623 |
| FEB 26 | 12.613 |
| MAR 26 | 12.427 |
| APR 26 | 11.845 |
| MAY 26 | 11.620 |
| JUN 26 | 11.569 |
| JUL 26 | 11.609 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.115 |
| SEP 25 | 12.460 |
| OCT 25 | 12.510 |
| NOV 25 | 12.705 |
| DEC 25 | 12.995 |
| JAN 26 | 13.145 |
| FEB 26 | 13.090 |
| MAR 26 | 12.720 |
| APR 26 | 12.105 |
| MAY 26 | 11.935 |
| JUN 26 | 11.960 |
| JUL 26 | 12.060 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-10 | $3.24 | $2.94 | $3.53 |
| 2025-07-11 | $3.23 | $2.94 | $3.52 |
| 2025-07-12 | $3.22 | $2.93 | $3.52 |
| 2025-07-13 | $3.23 | $2.94 | $3.52 |
| 2025-07-14 | $3.24 | $2.95 | $3.54 |
The market sentiment is currently bearish with a sentiment score of -0.367. The technical indicators are neutral with a score of -1/5, suggesting limited immediate price movement. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.16 and resistance at 3.35. With the ML price forecast indicating a slight increase of 0.72%, traders should be cautious of potential volatility within the range of 2.94 to 3.53. This presents short-term opportunities to capitalize on minor price fluctuations while being aware of the bearish sentiment.
The fundamental balance shows a decrease to 8.00 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply which could lead to price recovery in the medium term. However, the overall market sentiment is negative, particularly for natural gas with a sentiment score of -0.700. Producers should consider adjusting production plans in response to the lower demand forecasts and explore hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.
The weather outlook indicates a strong demand for cooling with high cooling degree days (CDD) expected, particularly in the South and West regions. This could lead to increased costs for consumers in these areas, despite the overall market sentiment. Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations and consider procurement strategies to secure supply amidst the current bearish outlook and rising production levels.
The current market presents a mixed picture with a bearish sentiment prevailing across the board, particularly for natural gas and crude oil. The fundamental balance reflects a significant drop, indicating potential supply-side pressures. Analysts should focus on the implications of the weather patterns driving demand, as high cooling demand may offset some bearish pressures in the short term. Monitoring geopolitical developments and their impact on supply will be crucial for identifying shifts in market dynamics.