Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.37
MA(20): $3.52
MACD: -0.0663
Signal: -0.0401
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 46.0
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 121,529
Avg (20d): 129,804
Ratio: 0.94
%K: 34.55
%D: 21.52
ADX: 12.35
+DI: 19.69
-DI: 25.26
Value: -65.45
Upper: 3.95
Middle: 3.52
Lower: 3.1
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 106.8 | 101.4 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 105.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 43.8 | 43.4 | 43.0 | 42.4 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 8.57 |
| LNG Exports | 16.0 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.73 |
| Total Demand | 104.7 | 103.9 | 98.0 | 97.3 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 8.47 |
TTF prices increased to 11.884 EUR/MWh (+0.171). JKM prices increased to 13.125 USD/MMBtu (+0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.241 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-11
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-11
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-11
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.884 |
| SEP 25 | 12.233 |
| OCT 25 | 12.401 |
| NOV 25 | 12.707 |
| DEC 25 | 12.848 |
| JAN 26 | 12.894 |
| FEB 26 | 12.869 |
| MAR 26 | 12.681 |
| APR 26 | 12.040 |
| MAY 26 | 11.802 |
| JUN 26 | 11.738 |
| JUL 26 | 11.781 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.125 |
| SEP 25 | 12.620 |
| OCT 25 | 12.680 |
| NOV 25 | 12.860 |
| DEC 25 | 13.180 |
| JAN 26 | 13.275 |
| FEB 26 | 13.235 |
| MAR 26 | 12.930 |
| APR 26 | 12.125 |
| MAY 26 | 12.060 |
| JUN 26 | 12.045 |
| JUL 26 | 12.260 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-11 | $3.32 | $3.02 | $3.62 |
| 2025-07-12 | $3.31 | $3.01 | $3.61 |
| 2025-07-13 | $3.32 | $3.03 | $3.62 |
| 2025-07-14 | $3.34 | $3.04 | $3.63 |
| 2025-07-15 | $3.32 | $3.03 | $3.62 |
Market conditions indicate a bearish sentiment overall, with a ML price forecast suggesting a potential drop of 0.56% in the coming day. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.35, while resistance is at 3.5. Traders should consider these levels as critical points for potential price action. The risk of volatility remains, particularly given the bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas and crude oil markets.
With the current fundamental balance at 7.80 BCFD and a bearish market sentiment, producers may need to reassess production planning and hedging strategies. The recent geopolitical tensions and oversupply concerns in crude oil could impact pricing and demand. Companies should remain vigilant and consider adjusting output or hedging against potential price declines.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement, especially in light of the bearish sentiment in the market. The fundamental balance suggests a slight easing in supply, which could lead to strategic procurement approaches to mitigate risks. Monitoring the weather outlook and related demand changes will be crucial for managing energy costs effectively.
The current market landscape shows a convergence of bearish signals across multiple sectors, particularly in crude oil and natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply-demand ratio, while geopolitical factors and sentiment analysis suggest potential downward pressure on prices. Analysts should focus on these driving factors and remain alert for any shifts that could alter the outlook.