Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.37
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: -0.0608
Signal: -0.0448
Days since crossover: 14
Value: 49.22
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,980
Avg (20d): 123,677
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 49.34
%D: 33.41
ADX: 12.05
+DI: 20.26
-DI: 23.88
Value: -50.66
Upper: 3.94
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 3.09
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 106.8 | 101.4 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 105.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 43.8 | 43.4 | 43.0 | 42.4 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 8.57 |
| LNG Exports | 16.0 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.73 |
| Total Demand | 104.7 | 103.9 | 98.0 | 97.3 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 8.47 |
TTF prices increased to 11.974 EUR/MWh (+0.090). JKM prices decreased to 13.115 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.141 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-14
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-14
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-14
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.974 |
| SEP 25 | 12.363 |
| OCT 25 | 12.526 |
| NOV 25 | 12.808 |
| DEC 25 | 12.946 |
| JAN 26 | 13.000 |
| FEB 26 | 12.985 |
| MAR 26 | 12.799 |
| APR 26 | 12.107 |
| MAY 26 | 11.848 |
| JUN 26 | 11.783 |
| JUL 26 | 11.827 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.115 |
| SEP 25 | 12.770 |
| OCT 25 | 12.830 |
| NOV 25 | 13.015 |
| DEC 25 | 13.325 |
| JAN 26 | 13.485 |
| FEB 26 | 13.435 |
| MAR 26 | 13.055 |
| APR 26 | 12.310 |
| MAY 26 | 12.135 |
| JUN 26 | 12.135 |
| JUL 26 | 12.255 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | $3.46 | $3.17 | $3.75 |
| 2025-07-16 | $3.48 | $3.19 | $3.76 |
| 2025-07-17 | $3.47 | $3.18 | $3.76 |
| 2025-07-18 | $3.48 | $3.19 | $3.76 |
| 2025-07-19 | $3.46 | $3.17 | $3.75 |
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.35, while resistance is at 3.5. Traders should be cautious of potential price movements, as the ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.19%. This could present short-term opportunities to capitalize on volatility, especially if prices test the support level.
With a fundamental balance of 7.80 BCFD and a change of -1.60, producers should consider adjusting their production planning accordingly. The overall market sentiment remains positive, particularly for natural gas, which could influence hedging strategies. Maintaining flexibility in production levels may be prudent given the current cooling demand trends and the potential for fluctuating prices.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the dominant cooling demand reflected in the weather outlook. With low heating demand anticipated, procurement strategies should focus on securing supplies at favorable prices. The fundamental balance and the high cooling demand suggest that supply reliability may be impacted, necessitating proactive measures to mitigate price volatility.
The current market landscape is shaped by a convergence of factors. The bearish technical indicators contrast with a positive sentiment in the news, particularly for natural gas. The dominant cooling demand across regions, coupled with a fundamental balance decline, suggests that while short-term outlooks may be cautious, the overall sentiment could shift if cooling demand persists. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely for potential outlook changes.