Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.39
MA(20): $3.49
MACD: -0.0317
Signal: -0.0421
Days since crossover: 1
Value: 52.86
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,490
Avg (20d): 120,992
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 68.11
%D: 60.96
ADX: 10.4
+DI: 22.62
-DI: 21.89
Value: -31.89
Upper: 3.87
Middle: 3.49
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 106.8 | 101.4 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 105.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 43.8 | 43.4 | 43.0 | 42.4 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 8.57 |
| LNG Exports | 16.0 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.73 |
| Total Demand | 104.7 | 103.9 | 98.0 | 97.3 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 8.47 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.732 EUR/MWh (-0.215). JKM prices decreased to 13.105 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.373 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-16
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-16
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-16
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.732 |
| SEP 25 | 11.915 |
| OCT 25 | 12.094 |
| NOV 25 | 12.399 |
| DEC 25 | 12.554 |
| JAN 26 | 12.628 |
| FEB 26 | 12.623 |
| MAR 26 | 12.450 |
| APR 26 | 11.807 |
| MAY 26 | 11.576 |
| JUN 26 | 11.532 |
| JUL 26 | 11.569 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.105 |
| SEP 25 | 12.300 |
| OCT 25 | 12.380 |
| NOV 25 | 12.590 |
| DEC 25 | 12.895 |
| JAN 26 | 13.065 |
| FEB 26 | 13.020 |
| MAR 26 | 12.670 |
| APR 26 | 11.985 |
| MAY 26 | 11.830 |
| JUN 26 | 11.870 |
| JUL 26 | 11.990 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-17 | $3.54 | $3.26 | $3.83 |
| 2025-07-18 | $3.55 | $3.26 | $3.84 |
| 2025-07-19 | $3.54 | $3.25 | $3.83 |
| 2025-07-20 | $3.53 | $3.25 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-21 | $3.53 | $3.24 | $3.82 |
Market indicators suggest a neutral outlook for price movement in the near term. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.5, while resistance is noted at 3.66. This indicates a potential range for trading strategies. With a downward forecast of 0.20%, traders should be cautious of volatility and consider short-term opportunities around these levels.
The fundamental balance is currently at 7.80 BCFD, showing a decrease of 1.60, which may prompt producers to adjust output levels. The positive sentiment around NATURAL_GAS (+0.700) suggests potential for higher prices driven by high cooling demand, particularly in the South and West. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand and market sentiment.
With the weather outlook indicating a high cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The current market sentiment for NATURAL_GAS is positive, which could lead to higher procurement costs. It's advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging against price increases in the coming weeks.
The current market landscape indicates a neutral sentiment overall, with bearishstrong demand for natural gas driven by cooling needs presents a contrasting dynamic. Analysts should focus on monitoring supply-demand shifts and geopolitical developments that could influence market sentiment and pricing in the near future.