Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.1 BCFD
MA(9): $3.43
MA(20): $3.45
MACD: -0.0121
Signal: -0.033
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 53.17
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 116,323
Avg (20d): 128,239
Ratio: 0.91
%K: 87.08
%D: 73.53
ADX: 9.83
+DI: 21.94
-DI: 20.02
Value: -12.92
Upper: 3.71
Middle: 3.45
Lower: 3.19
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 106.2 | 101.7 | 99.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 112.5 | 108.8 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.17 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 43.8 | 47.3 | 43.87 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| LNG Exports | 16.5 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 107.0 | 104.7 | 102.3 | 98.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 7.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.718 EUR/MWh (-0.063). JKM prices remained stable to 13.105 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.387 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-18
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-18
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-18
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.718 |
| SEP 25 | 11.857 |
| OCT 25 | 12.009 |
| NOV 25 | 12.274 |
| DEC 25 | 12.416 |
| JAN 26 | 12.488 |
| FEB 26 | 12.479 |
| MAR 26 | 12.319 |
| APR 26 | 11.732 |
| MAY 26 | 11.507 |
| JUN 26 | 11.471 |
| JUL 26 | 11.502 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.105 |
| SEP 25 | 12.180 |
| OCT 25 | 12.270 |
| NOV 25 | 12.455 |
| DEC 25 | 12.765 |
| JAN 26 | 12.960 |
| FEB 26 | 12.930 |
| MAR 26 | 12.570 |
| APR 26 | 11.925 |
| MAY 26 | 11.795 |
| JUN 26 | 11.820 |
| JUL 26 | 11.945 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-18 | $3.55 | $3.27 | $3.84 |
| 2025-07-19 | $3.54 | $3.25 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-20 | $3.53 | $3.25 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-21 | $3.53 | $3.24 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-22 | $3.53 | $3.25 | $3.82 |
The current market data indicates a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.5 and a resistance at 3.66. This suggests potential volatility within this range, creating short-term trading opportunities.
The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.28%, which may present a favorable trading environment for short-term positions. However, the fundamental balance of 6.10 BCFD with a change of -1.70 indicates a tightening supply, which could lead to price fluctuations.
Producers should consider the implications of the weather outlook, which shows a dominant cooling degree day (CDD) of 19.6. This suggests an increase in demand for natural gas for power generation, which may impact production planning.
The neutral sentiment in the market, particularly with a strong sentiment score of +0.650 for natural gas, indicates a stable outlook. Producers may want to adopt hedging strategies to manage potential price volatility driven by cooling demand.
Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations as the cooling demand is expected to rise, leading to increased natural gas prices. The current prices are near a 2-week high, which could affect procurement strategies.
The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, which may introduce supply reliability risks. It would be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies or hedging to mitigate these risks in the upcoming weeks.
The market presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a mixed outlook driven by strong cooling demand and a tightening supply scenario. The fundamental balance change of -1.70 indicates potential shifts in market dynamics.
Analysts should focus on the weather patterns, which are currently favoring increased demand for natural gas. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward trend, but the overall market sentiment remains balanced. This could indicate a period of volatility that warrants close monitoring for potential outlook shifts.