Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.1 BCFD
MA(9): $3.43
MA(20): $3.45
MACD: -0.0123
Signal: -0.0331
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 53.1
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 108,569
Avg (20d): 127,851
Ratio: 0.85
%K: 86.67
%D: 73.39
ADX: 9.83
+DI: 21.94
-DI: 20.02
Value: -13.33
Upper: 3.71
Middle: 3.45
Lower: 3.19
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 106.2 | 101.7 | 99.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 112.5 | 108.8 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.17 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 43.8 | 47.3 | 43.87 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| LNG Exports | 16.5 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 107.0 | 104.7 | 102.3 | 98.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 7.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.633 EUR/MWh (-0.085). JKM prices decreased to 12.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.180). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.367 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-19
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-19
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-19
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.633 |
| SEP 25 | 11.653 |
| OCT 25 | 11.818 |
| NOV 25 | 12.119 |
| DEC 25 | 12.287 |
| JAN 26 | 12.360 |
| FEB 26 | 12.366 |
| MAR 26 | 12.207 |
| APR 26 | 11.605 |
| MAY 26 | 11.377 |
| JUN 26 | 11.340 |
| JUL 26 | 11.394 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.000 |
| OCT 25 | 12.080 |
| NOV 25 | 12.285 |
| DEC 25 | 12.620 |
| JAN 26 | 12.795 |
| FEB 26 | 12.775 |
| MAR 26 | 12.410 |
| APR 26 | 11.770 |
| MAY 26 | 11.625 |
| JUN 26 | 11.665 |
| JUL 26 | 11.810 |
| AUG 26 | 11.880 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | $3.55 | $3.27 | $3.83 |
| 2025-07-20 | $3.55 | $3.26 | $3.83 |
| 2025-07-21 | $3.54 | $3.26 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-22 | $3.54 | $3.26 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-23 | $3.54 | $3.26 | $3.82 |
Current market conditions reflect a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of 6.10 BCFD. Key price levels are identified with Fibonacci support at 3.5 and resistance at 3.66. The ML price forecast indicates a potential downward movement of 0.46%, suggesting short-term volatility may present trading opportunities, particularly within the range of 3.27 to 3.83. Watch for shifts in cooling demand across regions, which could impact pricing dynamics.
With a neutral market sentiment and a fundamental balance showing a decrease of -1.70, producers should assess production levels carefully. The current cooling demand is high, particularly in the Northeast and West, which may influence gas supply strategies. Hedging strategies should be evaluated in light of the ML forecast indicating potential price declines, particularly for natural gas, which is experiencing a bullish sentiment due to increased air conditioning demand.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral. The high cooling demand could lead to increased prices in the short term, especially for natural gas, which is currently at a 2-week high. Supply reliability is supported by the recent rise in storage levels, but consumers should monitor the risk of price volatility reflected in the ML price forecast indicating a downward trend. Consideration for procurement strategies is essential to mitigate potential cost impacts.
The energy market presents a neutral outlook with several driving factors at play. The fundamental balance is slightly bearish with a decrease in demand, while the current weather patterns indicate high cooling demand across all regions. The sentiment surrounding crude oil remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, while natural gas shows strength driven by increased consumption for cooling. Analysts should watch for shifts in sentiment and adjust forecasts accordingly, particularly in light of the ML price forecasts.