Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.1 BCFD
MA(9): $3.43
MA(20): $3.44
MACD: -0.0187
Signal: -0.0302
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 46.23
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 12,815
Avg (20d): 123,357
Ratio: 0.1
%K: 49.17
%D: 67.52
ADX: 9.64
+DI: 20.25
-DI: 23.36
Value: -50.83
Upper: 3.67
Middle: 3.44
Lower: 3.2
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 106.2 | 101.7 | 99.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 112.5 | 108.8 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.17 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 43.8 | 47.3 | 43.87 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| LNG Exports | 16.5 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 107.0 | 104.7 | 102.3 | 98.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 7.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.633 EUR/MWh (-0.085). JKM prices decreased to 12.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.180). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.367 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-20
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-20
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-20
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.633 |
| SEP 25 | 11.653 |
| OCT 25 | 11.818 |
| NOV 25 | 12.119 |
| DEC 25 | 12.287 |
| JAN 26 | 12.360 |
| FEB 26 | 12.366 |
| MAR 26 | 12.207 |
| APR 26 | 11.605 |
| MAY 26 | 11.377 |
| JUN 26 | 11.340 |
| JUL 26 | 11.394 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.000 |
| OCT 25 | 12.080 |
| NOV 25 | 12.285 |
| DEC 25 | 12.620 |
| JAN 26 | 12.795 |
| FEB 26 | 12.775 |
| MAR 26 | 12.410 |
| APR 26 | 11.770 |
| MAY 26 | 11.625 |
| JUN 26 | 11.665 |
| JUL 26 | 11.810 |
| AUG 26 | 11.880 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | $3.55 | $3.27 | $3.83 |
| 2025-07-20 | $3.55 | $3.26 | $3.83 |
| 2025-07-21 | $3.54 | $3.26 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-22 | $3.54 | $3.26 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-23 | $3.54 | $3.26 | $3.82 |
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.35 and resistance at 3.5. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, especially given the ML price forecast indicating a downward movement of 0.46% within a range of 3.27 to 3.83. Short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations around these levels, but risks are present due to the overall bearish technical outlook.
The fundamental balance is at 6.10 BCFD, reflecting a decrease of 1.70, indicating potential supply challenges. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The overall market sentiment remains positive at +0.400, particularly for crude oil and natural gas, suggesting favorable conditions despite the technical bearishness. Monitoring geopolitical developments will be crucial as they may impact supply stability.
With the weather outlook favoring high cooling demand (CDD: 17.0), consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The moderately bearish sentiment in the market could lead to temporary price dips, but the fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, which may pose supply reliability risks in the near future. It is advisable to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price spikes as demand continues to rise.
The energy market is currently characterized by a moderately bearish technical outlook, with significant cooling demand influencing both natural gas and crude oil prices. The fundamental balance shows a decline, suggesting a tightening supply situation. Analysts should focus on the interplay between the weather outlook and geopolitical factors, as these will likely drive market dynamics moving forward. The overall sentiment remains positive, but vigilance is required for shifts in supply-demand balance.