Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.1 BCFD
MA(9): $3.43
MA(20): $3.42
MACD: -0.0379
Signal: -0.0325
Days since crossover: 1
Value: 41.98
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,663
Avg (20d): 128,868
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 21.04
%D: 48.13
ADX: 10.6
+DI: 18.96
-DI: 26.72
Value: -78.96
Upper: 3.67
Middle: 3.42
Lower: 3.17
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 106.2 | 101.7 | 99.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 112.5 | 108.8 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.17 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 43.8 | 47.3 | 43.87 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| LNG Exports | 16.5 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 107.0 | 104.7 | 102.3 | 98.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 7.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.598 EUR/MWh (-0.035). JKM prices decreased to 11.980 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.382 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-22
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-22
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-22
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.598 |
| SEP 25 | 11.557 |
| OCT 25 | 11.713 |
| NOV 25 | 12.008 |
| DEC 25 | 12.175 |
| JAN 26 | 12.243 |
| FEB 26 | 12.247 |
| MAR 26 | 12.085 |
| APR 26 | 11.448 |
| MAY 26 | 11.234 |
| JUN 26 | 11.193 |
| JUL 26 | 11.246 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.980 |
| OCT 25 | 11.980 |
| NOV 25 | 12.175 |
| DEC 25 | 12.555 |
| JAN 26 | 12.710 |
| FEB 26 | 12.695 |
| MAR 26 | 12.320 |
| APR 26 | 11.645 |
| MAY 26 | 11.515 |
| JUN 26 | 11.540 |
| JUL 26 | 11.660 |
| AUG 26 | 11.790 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-23 | $3.25 | $2.96 | $3.55 |
| 2025-07-24 | $3.24 | $2.95 | $3.53 |
| 2025-07-25 | $3.23 | $2.94 | $3.52 |
| 2025-07-26 | $3.26 | $2.96 | $3.55 |
| 2025-07-27 | $3.26 | $2.97 | $3.55 |
The current market sentiment is bearish with a score of -0.575, indicating a potential downward trend. The technical indicators suggest a support level at 3.16 and a resistance level at 3.35. Traders should be cautious of price volatility, particularly given the fundamental balance showing a decrease of -1.70 BCFD. The ML price forecast indicates a slight uptick of 0.03%, but this may not be sufficient to overcome bearish pressures. Short-term opportunities may arise from quick trades near support levels, while risks remain elevated due to negative sentiment.
With a bearish market sentiment and a fundamental balance showing a decrease, producers should reconsider production levels. The news indicates that natural gas prices are declining due to near-record output and lagging LNG exports. This situation may necessitate adjustments in hedging strategies to mitigate financial exposure. Producers should monitor the high cooling demand forecast, which could influence short-term demand for gas in power generation.
The current market conditions present a mixed bag for consumers. While the bearish sentiment could lead to potential cost reductions, the high cooling demand forecast suggests that energy consumption may spike. Consumers should be aware of potential supply reliability risks as natural gas prices are projected to fluctuate, especially with the fundamental balance showing a decrease. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies that leverage current price trends while remaining vigilant of market shifts.
The energy market is currently influenced by a bearish overall sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.575. Key driving factors include a fundamental balance decline and negative news sentiment surrounding both natural gas and crude oil prices. The weather outlook indicates high cooling demand, which may provide some support to prices in the short term. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply dynamics, particularly the impact of high output on pricing, and the potential for shifts in demand as the cooling season progresses.