Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.1 BCFD
MA(9): $3.4
MA(20): $3.4
MACD: -0.0627
Signal: -0.0385
Days since crossover: 2
Value: 37.06
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,844
Avg (20d): 131,433
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 1.25
%D: 19.79
ADX: 12.05
+DI: 17.31
-DI: 31.22
Value: -98.75
Upper: 3.69
Middle: 3.4
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 106.2 | 101.7 | 99.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 112.5 | 108.8 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.17 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 43.8 | 47.3 | 43.87 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| LNG Exports | 16.5 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 107.0 | 104.7 | 102.3 | 98.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 7.37 |
TTF prices increased to 11.601 EUR/MWh (+0.003). JKM prices increased to 12.070 USD/MMBtu (+0.090). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.469 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-23
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-23
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-23
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.601 |
| SEP 25 | 11.554 |
| OCT 25 | 11.700 |
| NOV 25 | 12.005 |
| DEC 25 | 12.180 |
| JAN 26 | 12.258 |
| FEB 26 | 12.262 |
| MAR 26 | 12.104 |
| APR 26 | 11.467 |
| MAY 26 | 11.263 |
| JUN 26 | 11.235 |
| JUL 26 | 11.265 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.070 |
| OCT 25 | 12.000 |
| NOV 25 | 12.180 |
| DEC 25 | 12.565 |
| JAN 26 | 12.740 |
| FEB 26 | 12.705 |
| MAR 26 | 12.345 |
| APR 26 | 11.685 |
| MAY 26 | 11.555 |
| JUN 26 | 11.605 |
| JUL 26 | 11.725 |
| AUG 26 | 11.830 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-24 | $3.08 | $2.78 | $3.38 |
| 2025-07-25 | $3.07 | $2.77 | $3.37 |
| 2025-07-26 | $3.09 | $2.79 | $3.38 |
| 2025-07-27 | $3.09 | $2.79 | $3.39 |
| 2025-07-28 | $3.11 | $2.81 | $3.41 |
Current market data indicates a neutral technical interpretation with a score of -1/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 3.07 and resistance at 3.32. The fundamental balance is at 6.10 BCFD, reflecting a decrease of -1.70.
The weather outlook shows a strong cooling demand (CDD: 16.1), particularly in the South and West regions, which could support short-term price increases. The ML price forecast suggests a slight uptick of 0.21%, with a range of 2.78 to 3.38.
However, the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.600, indicating potential volatility. Traders should remain cautious and look for opportunities around the support and resistance levels.
The current fundamental balance of 6.10 BCFD with a notable reduction indicates a need for careful production planning. Producers should consider adjusting output in response to the bearish sentiment reflected in news articles, particularly regarding near-record output and lagging LNG exports.
With high cooling demand forecasted, there may be short-term opportunities to optimize production in regions with increased demand. Hedging strategies should be revisited to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices as indicated by the bearish market sentiment.
Consumers should brace for potential cost fluctuations due to the current market dynamics. The high cooling demand suggests that while demand may rise, the bearish sentiment in the market could lead to price volatility.
It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage supply reliability risks effectively, particularly as the market sentiment remains negative.
The current market picture is characterized by a bearish sentiment overall, with significant driving factors including high production levels and low demand forecasts impacting natural gas prices. The technical indicators suggest a neutral stance, with critical support at 3.07 and resistance at 3.32.
Analysts should closely monitor the cooling demand trends across regions as they could shift market dynamics. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement, but the prevailing bearish sentiment may override short-term gains. A comprehensive understanding of these factors will be crucial in advising clients.