Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.38
MA(20): $3.4
MACD: -0.08
Signal: -0.0468
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 37.78
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 450
Avg (20d): 127,711
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 5.46
%D: 9.91
ADX: 13.29
+DI: 16.93
-DI: 30.8
Value: -94.54
Upper: 3.71
Middle: 3.4
Lower: 3.08
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.5 | 101.8 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 113.1 | 108.4 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.0 | 45.7 | 48.6 | 46.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 8.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 104.9 | 107.0 | 103.1 | 100.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.566 EUR/MWh (-0.035). JKM prices decreased to 11.930 USD/MMBtu (-0.140). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.364 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-24
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-24
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-24
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.566 |
| SEP 25 | 11.413 |
| OCT 25 | 11.568 |
| NOV 25 | 11.898 |
| DEC 25 | 12.089 |
| JAN 26 | 12.177 |
| FEB 26 | 12.181 |
| MAR 26 | 12.027 |
| APR 26 | 11.423 |
| MAY 26 | 11.239 |
| JUN 26 | 11.211 |
| JUL 26 | 11.240 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.930 |
| OCT 25 | 11.750 |
| NOV 25 | 12.010 |
| DEC 25 | 12.420 |
| JAN 26 | 12.600 |
| FEB 26 | 12.580 |
| MAR 26 | 12.240 |
| APR 26 | 11.610 |
| MAY 26 | 11.490 |
| JUN 26 | 11.545 |
| JUL 26 | 11.670 |
| AUG 26 | 11.775 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-25 | $3.08 | $2.78 | $3.37 |
| 2025-07-26 | $3.1 | $2.8 | $3.39 |
| 2025-07-27 | $3.1 | $2.8 | $3.4 |
| 2025-07-28 | $3.12 | $2.82 | $3.42 |
| 2025-07-29 | $3.12 | $2.82 | $3.41 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment, with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate critical support at 3.06 and resistance at 3.32. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the ML price forecast predicts a decline of 0.53%, with a range between 2.78 and 3.37. Opportunities may arise from short-term fluctuations near these levels, but the overall market sentiment suggests a focus on risk management.
Producers should consider the implications of the current fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD with a positive change of +1.90. The bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas, reflected in a -0.650 sentiment score, indicates potential challenges in pricing. This could affect hedging strategies and production planning. Producers may need to evaluate output levels in light of near-record production and lagging LNG exports, which could pressure prices further.
Consumers should be aware of the current bearish market sentiment which may lead to potential cost fluctuations. The expected low heating demand and moderate cooling demand could impact procurement strategies. Given the current natural gas price trend, it might be prudent to consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, especially with forecasts indicating continued cooling demand across regions.
The overall market picture reflects a bearish sentiment with a significant influence from the weather outlook favoring cooling demand across all regions. The fundamental balance indicates an increase in supply, which could exacerbate price declines. Key driving factors include high production levels and negative sentiment surrounding natural gas and crude oil. Analysts should monitor these trends closely for potential shifts in market dynamics, particularly as geopolitical factors and weather forecasts evolve.