Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.34
MA(20): $3.36
MACD: -0.0912
Signal: -0.0556
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 38.63
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 75,361
Avg (20d): 127,571
Ratio: 0.59
%K: 8.63
%D: 5.75
ADX: 14.42
+DI: 15.93
-DI: 28.99
Value: -91.37
Upper: 3.66
Middle: 3.36
Lower: 3.07
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.5 | 101.8 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 113.1 | 108.4 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.0 | 45.7 | 48.6 | 46.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 8.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 104.9 | 107.0 | 103.1 | 100.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
TTF prices increased to 11.550 EUR/MWh (+0.003). JKM prices decreased to 11.875 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.325 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-26
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-26
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-26
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.550 |
| SEP 25 | 11.370 |
| OCT 25 | 11.587 |
| NOV 25 | 11.942 |
| DEC 25 | 12.115 |
| JAN 26 | 12.200 |
| FEB 26 | 12.215 |
| MAR 26 | 12.063 |
| APR 26 | 11.467 |
| MAY 26 | 11.293 |
| JUN 26 | 11.264 |
| JUL 26 | 11.296 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.875 |
| OCT 25 | 11.770 |
| NOV 25 | 12.015 |
| DEC 25 | 12.375 |
| JAN 26 | 12.605 |
| FEB 26 | 12.580 |
| MAR 26 | 12.200 |
| APR 26 | 11.615 |
| MAY 26 | 11.510 |
| JUN 26 | 11.565 |
| JUL 26 | 11.695 |
| AUG 26 | 11.785 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | $3.13 | $2.84 | $3.41 |
| 2025-07-27 | $3.13 | $2.84 | $3.42 |
| 2025-07-28 | $3.15 | $2.86 | $3.44 |
| 2025-07-29 | $3.15 | $2.86 | $3.44 |
| 2025-07-30 | $3.15 | $2.86 | $3.44 |
Current market data indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci levels suggest support at 3.06 and resistance at 3.32. Traders should watch for potential volatility within the forecasted price range of 2.84 to 3.41, as the ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.48%. Be cautious of the overall bearish sentiment which may impact short-term trading strategies.
The fundamental balance is at 8.00 BCFD with a notable increase of +1.90, indicating a growing supply. The bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for natural gas (-0.600), suggests producers should be cautious in their production planning. Hedging strategies may be necessary to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and demand. The cooling weather outlook could lead to lower heating demand, further impacting market dynamics.
With the current weather outlook favoring cooling (CDD: 14.2), consumers can expect moderate cooling demand, which may lead to stable supply levels. However, the overall market sentiment (-0.333) and potential price fluctuations could affect procurement strategies. Monitoring the 2.84 to 3.41 price range will be crucial for budgeting and cost management. Consumers should consider hedging against potential price increases as demand for cooling rises.
The market presents a bearish sentiment overall, driven by a combination of technical indicators and fundamental factors. The fundamental balance increase suggests ample supply, while the cooling weather patterns indicate moderate demand. Analysts should focus on the impact of weather on energy consumption and the potential for shifts in market sentiment as external factors evolve. The convergence of bearish sentiment and the slight upward ML forecast presents a nuanced landscape for future price predictions.