Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.29
MA(20): $3.35
MACD: -0.0984
Signal: -0.0642
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 39.02
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,480
Avg (20d): 116,999
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 10.04
%D: 8.16
ADX: 15.46
+DI: 15.44
-DI: 28.1
Value: -89.96
Upper: 3.66
Middle: 3.35
Lower: 3.04
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.5 | 101.8 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 113.1 | 108.4 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.0 | 45.7 | 48.6 | 46.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 8.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 104.9 | 107.0 | 103.1 | 100.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
TTF prices increased to 11.550 EUR/MWh (+0.003). JKM prices decreased to 11.875 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.325 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-27
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-27
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-27
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.550 |
| SEP 25 | 11.370 |
| OCT 25 | 11.587 |
| NOV 25 | 11.942 |
| DEC 25 | 12.115 |
| JAN 26 | 12.200 |
| FEB 26 | 12.215 |
| MAR 26 | 12.063 |
| APR 26 | 11.467 |
| MAY 26 | 11.293 |
| JUN 26 | 11.264 |
| JUL 26 | 11.296 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.875 |
| OCT 25 | 11.770 |
| NOV 25 | 12.015 |
| DEC 25 | 12.375 |
| JAN 26 | 12.605 |
| FEB 26 | 12.580 |
| MAR 26 | 12.200 |
| APR 26 | 11.615 |
| MAY 26 | 11.510 |
| JUN 26 | 11.565 |
| JUL 26 | 11.695 |
| AUG 26 | 11.785 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | $3.13 | $2.84 | $3.41 |
| 2025-07-27 | $3.13 | $2.84 | $3.42 |
| 2025-07-28 | $3.15 | $2.86 | $3.44 |
| 2025-07-29 | $3.15 | $2.86 | $3.44 |
| 2025-07-30 | $3.15 | $2.86 | $3.44 |
The current market sentiment is neutral, with a technical interpretation leaning moderately bearish (Score: -2/5). The Fibonacci levels indicate support at 3.06 and resistance at 3.32. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.49%, suggesting a range between 2.84 and 3.41. Short-term opportunities may arise if prices test the resistance level, while a breach below support could signal further declines.
The fundamental balance is at 8.00 BCFD with a change of +1.90, indicating a slight increase in supply. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to the bearish technical outlook. The neutral news sentiment and the impact of weather forecasts, particularly the overall cooling demand, could affect hedging strategies. Staying agile in response to fluctuations in demand and output is crucial for optimizing profitability.
With the current cooling demand forecasted across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The neutral market sentiment combined with a fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD suggests that supply remains relatively stable. However, the risk of price volatility exists, particularly if demand surges unexpectedly. Consider implementing procurement strategies that account for these fluctuations to mitigate costs.
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment with a technical outlook that is moderately bearish. Key driving factors include a fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD and a weather outlook that favors cooling demand. The ML price forecast predicts a slight increase, yet the overall sentiment remains cautious. Analysts should closely monitor external factors such as geopolitical developments and supply chain disruptions that could shift this balance towards a more bullish or bearish outlook.