Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.28
MA(20): $3.34
MACD: -0.1047
Signal: -0.0654
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 36.54
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 211
Avg (20d): 115,124
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 4.69
%D: 6.38
ADX: 15.74
+DI: 15.25
-DI: 30.21
Value: -95.31
Upper: 3.67
Middle: 3.34
Lower: 3.02
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.5 | 101.8 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 113.1 | 108.4 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.0 | 45.7 | 48.6 | 46.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 8.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 104.9 | 107.0 | 103.1 | 100.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
TTF prices increased to 11.550 EUR/MWh (+0.003). JKM prices decreased to 11.875 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.325 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-28
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-28
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-28
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.550 |
| SEP 25 | 11.370 |
| OCT 25 | 11.587 |
| NOV 25 | 11.942 |
| DEC 25 | 12.115 |
| JAN 26 | 12.200 |
| FEB 26 | 12.215 |
| MAR 26 | 12.063 |
| APR 26 | 11.467 |
| MAY 26 | 11.293 |
| JUN 26 | 11.264 |
| JUL 26 | 11.296 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.875 |
| OCT 25 | 11.770 |
| NOV 25 | 12.015 |
| DEC 25 | 12.375 |
| JAN 26 | 12.605 |
| FEB 26 | 12.580 |
| MAR 26 | 12.200 |
| APR 26 | 11.615 |
| MAY 26 | 11.510 |
| JUN 26 | 11.565 |
| JUL 26 | 11.695 |
| AUG 26 | 11.785 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-29 | $3.01 | $2.72 | $3.3 |
| 2025-07-30 | $3.02 | $2.74 | $3.31 |
| 2025-07-31 | $3.01 | $2.73 | $3.3 |
| 2025-08-01 | $3.01 | $2.73 | $3.3 |
| 2025-08-02 | $3.03 | $2.74 | $3.31 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish trend with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate support at 3.01 and resistance at 3.28. Traders should be cautious as the fundamental balance is at 8.00 BCFD, reflecting an increase in supply. The cooling demand across all regions may lead to short-term price fluctuations. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.70%, with a range of 2.72 to 3.3. Traders should monitor for volatility around these levels and consider short-term opportunities or risks.
Producers should note the neutral market sentiment and the fundamental balance indicating a supply increase. With the cooling demand expected, it may affect production planning, particularly if temperatures remain elevated. The hedging strategies should focus on managing risks associated with potential price volatility as the market reacts to supply adjustments and weather changes. Staying informed on news sentiment, particularly around natural gas and crude oil, will be crucial for strategic planning.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the cooling demand is likely to increase consumption, especially in the South and West regions. With a fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD, supply appears stable, but any disruptions could impact pricing. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for possible price increases, particularly given the ML price forecast indicating a slight upward trend. Monitoring the news sentiment around natural gas will provide insights into supply reliability.
The current market landscape shows a moderately bearish sentiment with a fundamental balance reflecting an increase in supply. The cooling demand across all regions is a significant driver of short-term price dynamics. Analysts should focus on the neutral overall market sentiment while assessing the implications of regional demand variations. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement, which may indicate potential shifts in market dynamics. Continuous monitoring of external factors, including geopolitical developments and weather patterns, will be essential for accurate forecasting.