Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.23
MA(20): $3.32
MACD: -0.1146
Signal: -0.0759
Days since crossover: 6
Value: 39.26
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,374
Avg (20d): 109,874
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 13.8
%D: 7.68
ADX: 17.2
+DI: 14.09
-DI: 28.99
Value: -86.2
Upper: 3.67
Middle: 3.32
Lower: 2.97
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.5 | 101.8 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 113.1 | 108.4 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.0 | 45.7 | 48.6 | 46.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 8.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 104.9 | 107.0 | 103.1 | 100.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
TTF prices increased to 11.556 EUR/MWh (+0.006). JKM prices increased to 11.925 USD/MMBtu (+0.050). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.369 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-29
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-29
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-29
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.556 |
| SEP 25 | 11.436 |
| OCT 25 | 11.649 |
| NOV 25 | 12.006 |
| DEC 25 | 12.183 |
| JAN 26 | 12.264 |
| FEB 26 | 12.275 |
| MAR 26 | 12.128 |
| APR 26 | 11.526 |
| MAY 26 | 11.349 |
| JUN 26 | 11.316 |
| JUL 26 | 11.337 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.925 |
| OCT 25 | 11.930 |
| NOV 25 | 12.165 |
| DEC 25 | 12.505 |
| JAN 26 | 12.725 |
| FEB 26 | 12.705 |
| MAR 26 | 12.325 |
| APR 26 | 11.715 |
| MAY 26 | 11.625 |
| JUN 26 | 11.670 |
| JUL 26 | 11.790 |
| AUG 26 | 11.885 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-29 | $3.01 | $2.72 | $3.3 |
| 2025-07-30 | $3.02 | $2.74 | $3.31 |
| 2025-07-31 | $3.01 | $2.73 | $3.3 |
| 2025-08-01 | $3.01 | $2.73 | $3.3 |
| 2025-08-02 | $3.03 | $2.74 | $3.31 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment, with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.98 and resistance at 3.26, indicating potential price volatility within this range. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.70% with a range of 2.72 to 3.3, suggesting short-term opportunities for traders to capitalize on fluctuations.
The fundamental balance is currently at 8.00 BCFD with a change of +1.90, indicating a slightly increasing supply. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies in light of the overall market sentiment of +0.525. The geopolitical sentiment surrounding crude oil, particularly regarding sanctions on Russian energy exports, could also impact pricing and supply security.
With the weather outlook indicating a cooling dominated scenario, especially in the South and West, consumers can expect low heating demand and moderate cooling demand. This could lead to fluctuations in natural gas prices, which are predicted to rise slightly due to weather impacts. It's advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies to mitigate potential cost fluctuations.
The current market presents a mixed picture; while the technical indicators are moderately bearish, the overall market sentiment remains positive. Key driving factors include the fundamental supply balance and the impact of geopolitical events on crude oil. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely, as shifts in sentiment could lead to significant price movements in the near future.