Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.17
MA(20): $3.3
MACD: -0.1225
Signal: -0.0851
Days since crossover: 7
Value: 37.43
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 5,093
Avg (20d): 110,090
Ratio: 0.05
%K: 3.72
%D: 6.46
ADX: 18.52
+DI: 13.55
-DI: 28.59
Value: -96.28
Upper: 3.67
Middle: 3.3
Lower: 2.93
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.5 | 101.8 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 113.1 | 108.4 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.0 | 45.7 | 48.6 | 46.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 8.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 104.9 | 107.0 | 103.1 | 100.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
TTF prices increased to 11.582 EUR/MWh (+0.026). JKM prices increased to 12.000 USD/MMBtu (+0.075). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.418 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-30
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-30
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-30
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.582 |
| SEP 25 | 11.760 |
| OCT 25 | 11.947 |
| NOV 25 | 12.260 |
| DEC 25 | 12.429 |
| JAN 26 | 12.511 |
| FEB 26 | 12.535 |
| MAR 26 | 12.386 |
| APR 26 | 11.716 |
| MAY 26 | 11.523 |
| JUN 26 | 11.493 |
| JUL 26 | 11.522 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.000 |
| OCT 25 | 12.165 |
| NOV 25 | 12.375 |
| DEC 25 | 12.725 |
| JAN 26 | 12.955 |
| FEB 26 | 12.950 |
| MAR 26 | 12.555 |
| APR 26 | 11.900 |
| MAY 26 | 11.780 |
| JUN 26 | 11.835 |
| JUL 26 | 11.965 |
| AUG 26 | 12.060 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | $3.04 | $2.76 | $3.33 |
| 2025-08-01 | $3.04 | $2.76 | $3.33 |
| 2025-08-02 | $3.06 | $2.77 | $3.34 |
| 2025-08-03 | $3.04 | $2.76 | $3.33 |
| 2025-08-04 | $3.05 | $2.77 | $3.33 |
Given the moderately bearish technical interpretation with a score of -2/5, traders should be cautious. The Fibonacci support is at 2.98, while resistance is at 3.26. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.06%, suggesting possible short-term selling opportunities. Overall, the market sentiment remains neutral, with a blend of cooling demand across all regions, which could lead to increased volatility in the coming days.
The fundamental balance is at 8.00 BCFD with a change of +1.90, indicating a slight increase in supply. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to bearish sentiment in natural gas, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.400. Given the high cooling demand forecasted, hedging strategies may be beneficial to mitigate price volatility.
With the expected low heating demand and high cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance indicates an increase in supply, which may provide some relief against rising prices. However, the bearish sentiment in natural gas could pose risks to supply reliability, making it crucial for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options.
The current market landscape shows a bearish sentiment in natural gas and a neutral overall market sentiment, indicating mixed signals. The fundamental balance is slightly positive, but the cooling demand trend could lead to shifts in consumption patterns. Analysts should monitor the impact of geopolitical tensions and weather patterns on supply dynamics, as these factors could significantly influence future market conditions.