Total supply increased by 0.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.7 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.12
MA(20): $3.29
MACD: -0.1185
Signal: -0.0913
Days since crossover: 8
Value: 41.03
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,265
Avg (20d): 116,261
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 17.36
%D: 13.95
ADX: 18.23
+DI: 15.81
-DI: 26.16
Value: -82.64
Upper: 3.65
Middle: 3.29
Lower: 2.92
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.7 | 101.9 | 99.97 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.2 | 112.9 | 108.0 | 106.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 48.6 | 44.0 | 44.6 | 44.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| LNG Exports | 15.4 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 11.63 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 109.6 | 104.9 | 99.2 | 99.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.6 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.63 |
TTF prices increased to 11.586 EUR/MWh (+0.004). JKM prices increased to 12.040 USD/MMBtu (+0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.454 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-31
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-31
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-31
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.586 |
| SEP 25 | 11.859 |
| OCT 25 | 12.044 |
| NOV 25 | 12.356 |
| DEC 25 | 12.519 |
| JAN 26 | 12.605 |
| FEB 26 | 12.619 |
| MAR 26 | 12.462 |
| APR 26 | 11.765 |
| MAY 26 | 11.573 |
| JUN 26 | 11.541 |
| JUL 26 | 11.562 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.040 |
| OCT 25 | 12.230 |
| NOV 25 | 12.430 |
| DEC 25 | 12.795 |
| JAN 26 | 12.985 |
| FEB 26 | 12.970 |
| MAR 26 | 12.575 |
| APR 26 | 11.890 |
| MAY 26 | 11.780 |
| JUN 26 | 11.825 |
| JUL 26 | 11.950 |
| AUG 26 | 12.040 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | $3.1 | $2.82 | $3.38 |
| 2025-08-02 | $3.11 | $2.83 | $3.4 |
| 2025-08-03 | $3.11 | $2.82 | $3.39 |
| 2025-08-04 | $3.11 | $2.83 | $3.39 |
| 2025-08-05 | $3.1 | $2.82 | $3.39 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 2.98 while resistance is at 3.26. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.20%, with expected prices ranging from 2.82 to 3.38. Traders should be cautious of this volatility, particularly given the high cooling demand forecast across all regions, which may create short-term opportunities or risks depending on actual demand outcomes.
The fundamental balance is 3.60 BCFD with a change of -4.40, indicating a slight oversupply. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to the moderately bearish technical indicators. The overall market sentiment remains positive, particularly for crude oil, which may support prices despite concerns over demand from tariff policies. Hedging strategies should be evaluated to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines.
With the low heating demand expected and high cooling demand forecasted, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and electricity prices. The current supply balance suggests reliability in procurement, but the bearish sentiment in the market could lead to price volatility. It may be prudent for consumers to consider hedging strategies to lock in favorable rates amid these fluctuations.
The energy market presents a complex picture with a moderately bearish technical outlook, contrasted by a positive sentiment for crude oil. The fundamental balance indicates slight oversupply, while the high cooling demand forecast suggests increased consumption patterns. Analysts should focus on the convergence of these factors, particularly the impact of geopolitical events on supply and demand dynamics, as well as the implications of weather forecasts on energy prices.