Total supply increased by 0.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.7 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.09
MA(20): $3.27
MACD: -0.1158
Signal: -0.0961
Days since crossover: 9
Value: 41.11
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 95,904
Avg (20d): 129,363
Ratio: 0.74
%K: 18.72
%D: 16.19
ADX: 18.97
+DI: 15.44
-DI: 26.04
Value: -81.28
Upper: 3.65
Middle: 3.27
Lower: 2.9
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.7 | 101.9 | 99.97 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.2 | 112.9 | 108.0 | 106.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 48.6 | 44.0 | 44.6 | 44.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| LNG Exports | 15.4 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 11.63 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 109.6 | 104.9 | 99.2 | 99.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.6 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.63 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.586 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices remained stable to 12.040 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.454 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-08-01
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-01
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-01
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.586 |
| SEP 25 | 11.834 |
| OCT 25 | 12.039 |
| NOV 25 | 12.317 |
| DEC 25 | 12.490 |
| JAN 26 | 12.572 |
| FEB 26 | 12.578 |
| MAR 26 | 12.414 |
| APR 26 | 11.743 |
| MAY 26 | 11.566 |
| JUN 26 | 11.532 |
| JUL 26 | 11.550 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.040 |
| OCT 25 | 12.235 |
| NOV 25 | 12.420 |
| DEC 25 | 12.795 |
| JAN 26 | 12.965 |
| FEB 26 | 12.950 |
| MAR 26 | 12.555 |
| APR 26 | 11.900 |
| MAY 26 | 11.795 |
| JUN 26 | 11.845 |
| JUL 26 | 11.965 |
| AUG 26 | 12.050 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | $3.1 | $2.82 | $3.38 |
| 2025-08-02 | $3.11 | $2.83 | $3.4 |
| 2025-08-03 | $3.11 | $2.82 | $3.39 |
| 2025-08-04 | $3.11 | $2.83 | $3.39 |
| 2025-08-05 | $3.1 | $2.82 | $3.39 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.97 while resistance stands at 3.25. With the ML price forecast indicating a 0.19% decrease, traders should remain cautious. The high volatility in cooling demand across all regions may present short-term trading opportunities, but the overall bearish sentiment could limit upward price movements.
The fundamental balance is currently at 3.60 BCFD with a notable decrease of -4.40, indicating potential overproduction risks. Coupled with a negative sentiment in the market, producers should consider adjusting production levels and exploring hedging strategies to mitigate financial exposure. The robust US production highlighted in recent news may further pressure prices, necessitating a cautious approach.
The current weather outlook indicates high cooling demand with low heating requirements, suggesting that consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. Given the bearish sentiment and price forecast, procurement strategies should focus on securing supplies at current rates before potential price increases due to demand spikes. Monitoring regional cooling degree days (CDD) will be crucial for anticipating supply reliability.
The energy market is currently influenced by several bearish factors, including a negative overall market sentiment score of -0.333 and a significant drop in the fundamental balance. The cooling demand across all regions indicates a strong seasonal trend, while geopolitical concerns around crude oil add to the complexity. Analysts should be vigilant for any shifts in sentiment or supply disruptions that could alter the current outlook.