Total supply increased by 0.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.7 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.06
MA(20): $3.25
MACD: -0.1267
Signal: -0.1024
Days since crossover: 10
Value: 35.79
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,136
Avg (20d): 121,623
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 0.43
%D: 12.57
ADX: 20.1
+DI: 14.37
-DI: 29.74
Value: -99.57
Upper: 3.64
Middle: 3.25
Lower: 2.85
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.7 | 101.9 | 99.97 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.2 | 112.9 | 108.0 | 106.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 48.6 | 44.0 | 44.6 | 44.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| LNG Exports | 15.4 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 11.63 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 109.6 | 104.9 | 99.2 | 99.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.6 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.63 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.586 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 12.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.414 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-08-04
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-04
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-04
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.586 |
| SEP 25 | 11.520 |
| OCT 25 | 11.720 |
| NOV 25 | 12.034 |
| DEC 25 | 12.213 |
| JAN 26 | 12.306 |
| FEB 26 | 12.322 |
| MAR 26 | 12.161 |
| APR 26 | 11.546 |
| MAY 26 | 11.364 |
| JUN 26 | 11.332 |
| JUL 26 | 11.373 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.000 |
| OCT 25 | 11.905 |
| NOV 25 | 12.110 |
| DEC 25 | 12.510 |
| JAN 26 | 12.690 |
| FEB 26 | 12.660 |
| MAR 26 | 12.265 |
| APR 26 | 11.640 |
| MAY 26 | 11.535 |
| JUN 26 | 11.615 |
| JUL 26 | 11.740 |
| AUG 26 | 11.825 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-05 | $2.94 | $2.67 | $3.22 |
| 2025-08-06 | $2.94 | $2.66 | $3.22 |
| 2025-08-07 | $2.93 | $2.65 | $3.2 |
| 2025-08-08 | $2.93 | $2.65 | $3.21 |
| 2025-08-09 | $2.94 | $2.67 | $3.22 |
Current market indicators suggest a bearish sentiment with a technical interpretation score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support at 2.93 and resistance at 3.22 highlight potential price boundaries. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.37%, suggesting short-term trading opportunities may exist within this range. However, the overall bearish news sentiment could introduce volatility and risk, particularly influenced by the cooling demand across regions.
The current fundamental balance is at 3.60 BCFD with a notable decrease of -4.40. This indicates a potential oversupply scenario, particularly emphasized by the bearish news sentiment surrounding natural gas prices, which are influenced by high production levels. Producers should consider adjusting production plans and hedging strategies accordingly to mitigate risks from potential price drops stemming from the current market conditions.
With the weather outlook indicating high cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in costs associated with natural gas and electricity. The bearish sentiment in the market could lead to lower prices in the near term, but the risk of oversupply affecting reliability and procurement strategies remains. It may be prudent to explore hedging options to guard against unexpected price spikes.
The convergence of a bearish sentiment across multiple indicators, including a negative news sentiment score and a fundamental balance indicating oversupply, paints a cautionary picture for the energy market. The high cooling degree days across all regions signal strong demand for power generation, which could offer temporary support against the bearish backdrop. Analysts should closely monitor these dynamics as they could shift market outlooks rapidly, especially with the volatile nature of geopolitical influences and production levels.