Total supply increased by 0.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.7 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.05
MA(20): $3.22
MACD: -0.1185
Signal: -0.1095
Days since crossover: 12
Value: 44.09
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,570
Avg (20d): 119,351
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 27.69
%D: 16.13
ADX: 21.95
+DI: 15.63
-DI: 28.0
Value: -72.31
Upper: 3.64
Middle: 3.22
Lower: 2.81
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.7 | 101.9 | 99.97 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.2 | 112.9 | 108.0 | 106.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 48.6 | 44.0 | 44.6 | 44.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| LNG Exports | 15.4 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 11.63 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 109.6 | 104.9 | 99.2 | 99.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.6 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.63 |
TTF prices increased to 11.661 EUR/MWh (+0.037). JKM prices decreased to 11.990 USD/MMBtu (-0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.329 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-06
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-06
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-06
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.661 |
| OCT 25 | 11.895 |
| NOV 25 | 12.181 |
| DEC 25 | 12.353 |
| JAN 26 | 12.438 |
| FEB 26 | 12.449 |
| MAR 26 | 12.281 |
| APR 26 | 11.604 |
| MAY 26 | 11.402 |
| JUN 26 | 11.368 |
| JUL 26 | 11.391 |
| AUG 26 | 11.433 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.990 |
| OCT 25 | 12.065 |
| NOV 25 | 12.245 |
| DEC 25 | 12.655 |
| JAN 26 | 12.835 |
| FEB 26 | 12.790 |
| MAR 26 | 12.425 |
| APR 26 | 11.735 |
| MAY 26 | 11.575 |
| JUN 26 | 11.700 |
| JUL 26 | 11.785 |
| AUG 26 | 11.875 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | $3.06 | $2.78 | $3.33 |
| 2025-08-08 | $3.07 | $2.79 | $3.34 |
| 2025-08-09 | $3.08 | $2.81 | $3.36 |
| 2025-08-10 | $3.07 | $2.8 | $3.35 |
| 2025-08-11 | $3.07 | $2.8 | $3.34 |
Current market data indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.89 and resistance at 3.19. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the ML price forecast predicts a decline of 0.69%, with a projected range of 2.78 to 3.33. This suggests short-term opportunities may arise near the support level, but risks remain elevated due to overall market sentiment.
The fundamental balance shows a shift to 3.60 BCFD with a decrease of -4.40, indicating a tighter supply landscape. Producers should evaluate hedging strategies to protect against potential price declines, especially given the negative sentiment surrounding crude oil, which could impact overall revenue. Monitoring weather patterns, especially the high cooling demand across regions, may also inform production adjustments to meet demand spikes.
Consumers should brace for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral but shows signs of bearish pressure in crude oil. The current cooling demand may lead to increased natural gas consumption, driving prices higher. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies to mitigate the risk of rising costs, particularly in the face of tight supply dynamics reflected in the fundamental balance.
The market presents a mixed picture with bearish sentiment dominating technical indicators, while the fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply situation. The overall market sentiment remains stable, but the divergent trends in crude and natural gas prices warrant close monitoring. Analysts should keep an eye on the weather outlook, as high cooling demand could shift market dynamics, potentially leading to a bullish trend in natural gas prices if the heat persists.