Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.4 BCFD
MA(9): $3.04
MA(20): $3.21
MACD: -0.1137
Signal: -0.1106
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 43.09
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,550
Avg (20d): 117,833
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 31.21
%D: 23.9
ADX: 22.48
+DI: 14.88
-DI: 26.98
Value: -68.79
Upper: 3.62
Middle: 3.21
Lower: 2.8
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.0 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 102.5 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.393 EUR/MWh (-0.268). JKM prices decreased to 11.930 USD/MMBtu (-0.060). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.537 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-07
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-07
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-07
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.393 |
| OCT 25 | 11.563 |
| NOV 25 | 11.883 |
| DEC 25 | 12.062 |
| JAN 26 | 12.148 |
| FEB 26 | 12.167 |
| MAR 26 | 12.010 |
| APR 26 | 11.409 |
| MAY 26 | 11.234 |
| JUN 26 | 11.210 |
| JUL 26 | 11.232 |
| AUG 26 | 11.274 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.930 |
| OCT 25 | 11.770 |
| NOV 25 | 11.960 |
| DEC 25 | 12.345 |
| JAN 26 | 12.525 |
| FEB 26 | 12.495 |
| MAR 26 | 12.140 |
| APR 26 | 11.540 |
| MAY 26 | 11.400 |
| JUN 26 | 11.530 |
| JUL 26 | 11.595 |
| AUG 26 | 11.685 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-08 | $3.07 | $2.87 | $3.28 |
| 2025-08-09 | $3.09 | $2.89 | $3.3 |
| 2025-08-10 | $3.08 | $2.88 | $3.29 |
| 2025-08-11 | $3.08 | $2.88 | $3.28 |
| 2025-08-12 | $3.08 | $2.88 | $3.28 |
The current market sentiment is bearish with a technical score of -2/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 2.89 and resistance at 3.19, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast suggests a slight increase of 0.25%, with a range of 2.87 to 3.28. Traders should consider the overall bearish sentiment and prepare for potential volatility due to cooling demand across all regions.
The fundamental balance is at 9.40 BCFD with a change of +5.80, indicating an increase in supply. Producers may need to reassess their production planning and hedging strategies in light of the current market sentiment. The recent news indicates a steady natural gas market despite high output levels, suggesting that producers should remain cautious about overproduction in a bearish environment.
With the weather outlook indicating high cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish sentiment in the market may present opportunities for hedging against price increases, especially with the forecasted price range of 2.87 to 3.28. Monitoring supply reliability will be essential, given the current market dynamics.
The overall market is characterized by a bearish sentiment, influenced by a strong supply balance and high cooling demand. Key drivers include the 9.40 BCFD fundamental balance and the cooling-dominant weather outlook across all regions. Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML price forecast and the potential for shifts in market dynamics due to geopolitical factors affecting oil prices.