Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.4 BCFD
MA(9): $3.04
MA(20): $3.19
MACD: -0.1142
Signal: -0.1115
Days since crossover: 14
Value: 40.07
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 135,419
Avg (20d): 126,595
Ratio: 1.07
%K: 23.17
%D: 25.88
ADX: 22.39
+DI: 15.51
-DI: 27.54
Value: -76.83
Upper: 3.62
Middle: 3.19
Lower: 2.77
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.0 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 102.5 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.311 EUR/MWh (-0.082). JKM prices increased to 11.940 USD/MMBtu (+0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.629 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-08
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-08
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-08
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.311 |
| OCT 25 | 11.451 |
| NOV 25 | 11.765 |
| DEC 25 | 11.922 |
| JAN 26 | 12.006 |
| FEB 26 | 12.015 |
| MAR 26 | 11.865 |
| APR 26 | 11.296 |
| MAY 26 | 11.138 |
| JUN 26 | 11.105 |
| JUL 26 | 11.111 |
| AUG 26 | 11.160 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.940 |
| OCT 25 | 11.750 |
| NOV 25 | 11.900 |
| DEC 25 | 12.270 |
| JAN 26 | 12.445 |
| FEB 26 | 12.410 |
| MAR 26 | 12.055 |
| APR 26 | 11.475 |
| MAY 26 | 11.340 |
| JUN 26 | 11.475 |
| JUL 26 | 11.520 |
| AUG 26 | 11.620 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-08 | $3.07 | $2.87 | $3.28 |
| 2025-08-09 | $3.09 | $2.89 | $3.3 |
| 2025-08-10 | $3.08 | $2.88 | $3.29 |
| 2025-08-11 | $3.08 | $2.88 | $3.28 |
| 2025-08-12 | $3.08 | $2.88 | $3.28 |
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -3/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.89 and resistance at 3.19. The ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 0.25%, with a trading range of 2.87 to 3.28. This presents short-term opportunities, but caution is advised due to the overall neutral market sentiment reflected in the news sentiment score of -0.067.
With a fundamental balance of 9.40 BCFD and a significant change of +5.80, producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with market demand. The bearish technical outlook may necessitate a review of hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. Producers should also monitor the neutral sentiment in news articles, particularly regarding supply and demand dynamics.
Consumers should be prepared for potential cost fluctuations due to the current bearish market sentiment and the cooling weather outlook, which is projected to dominate demand. With high cooling demand expected, utilities may experience increased costs. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies or hedging options to manage price risks effectively during this period of volatility.
The current market landscape presents a bearish outlook driven by a combination of technical indicators and fundamental balances. The 9.40 BCFD balance indicates an oversupply situation, while the cooling demand forecast suggests limited upside potential. Analysts should closely monitor the market sentiment and geopolitical developments, as these factors could shift the outlook and influence pricing strategies moving forward.