Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.4 BCFD
MA(9): $3.04
MA(20): $3.19
MACD: -0.1147
Signal: -0.1116
Days since crossover: 14
Value: 39.86
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 171,662
Avg (20d): 128,408
Ratio: 1.34
%K: 21.79
%D: 25.42
ADX: 22.39
+DI: 15.51
-DI: 27.54
Value: -78.21
Upper: 3.62
Middle: 3.19
Lower: 2.77
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.0 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 102.5 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.211 EUR/MWh (-0.100). JKM prices decreased to 11.930 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.719 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-09
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-09
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-09
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.211 |
| OCT 25 | 11.283 |
| NOV 25 | 11.603 |
| DEC 25 | 11.765 |
| JAN 26 | 11.850 |
| FEB 26 | 11.861 |
| MAR 26 | 11.715 |
| APR 26 | 11.143 |
| MAY 26 | 10.989 |
| JUN 26 | 10.954 |
| JUL 26 | 10.971 |
| AUG 26 | 11.021 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.930 |
| OCT 25 | 11.510 |
| NOV 25 | 11.675 |
| DEC 25 | 12.060 |
| JAN 26 | 12.230 |
| FEB 26 | 12.200 |
| MAR 26 | 11.845 |
| APR 26 | 11.275 |
| MAY 26 | 11.140 |
| JUN 26 | 11.270 |
| JUL 26 | 11.335 |
| AUG 26 | 11.430 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | $3.02 | $2.84 | $3.2 |
| 2025-08-10 | $3.01 | $2.83 | $3.19 |
| 2025-08-11 | $3.0 | $2.82 | $3.18 |
| 2025-08-12 | $3.0 | $2.82 | $3.18 |
| 2025-08-13 | $3.01 | $2.83 | $3.19 |
Current market dynamics indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -3/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.89 and resistance at 3.19. The ML price forecast suggests a slight uptick of 0.94%, with a range of 2.84 to 3.20. This presents a potential short-term opportunity, but caution is warranted given the overall bearish news sentiment and high volatility risks.
The fundamental balance of 9.40 BCFD with a 5.80 increase suggests ample supply conditions. Producers may need to adjust production planning to avoid oversupply, especially with the bearish news sentiment surrounding natural gas. Hedging strategies should focus on the near-record output and potential impacts on prices, particularly with cooling demand dominating across regions.
With the weather outlook indicating high cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish market sentiment may lead to lower prices in the short term, but the risk of supply reliability remains due to the current production levels. It may be prudent to consider hedging strategies to mitigate any sudden price spikes.
The energy market is currently influenced by a convergence of bearish sentiment and strong supply fundamentals. The overall market sentiment score of -0.267 indicates caution. Key driving factors include the cooling demand across all regions and the mixed signals from supply-side news. Analysts should monitor the ML price forecast closely, as shifts in sentiment could lead to volatility in the coming days.