Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.4 BCFD
MA(9): $2.97
MA(20): $3.1
MACD: -0.1343
Signal: -0.1194
Days since crossover: 17
Value: 34.97
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,100
Avg (20d): 127,016
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 13.35
%D: 13.5
ADX: 25.7
+DI: 13.02
-DI: 31.32
Value: -86.65
Upper: 3.48
Middle: 3.1
Lower: 2.71
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.0 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 102.5 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.211 EUR/MWh (-0.088). JKM prices decreased to 11.925 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.714 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-13
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-13
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-13
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.211 |
| OCT 25 | 11.257 |
| NOV 25 | 11.585 |
| DEC 25 | 11.753 |
| JAN 26 | 11.822 |
| FEB 26 | 11.836 |
| MAR 26 | 11.691 |
| APR 26 | 11.169 |
| MAY 26 | 11.005 |
| JUN 26 | 10.970 |
| JUL 26 | 10.972 |
| AUG 26 | 11.021 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.925 |
| OCT 25 | 11.515 |
| NOV 25 | 11.650 |
| DEC 25 | 12.040 |
| JAN 26 | 12.210 |
| FEB 26 | 12.180 |
| MAR 26 | 11.825 |
| APR 26 | 11.305 |
| MAY 26 | 11.160 |
| JUN 26 | 11.310 |
| JUL 26 | 11.365 |
| AUG 26 | 11.460 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-15 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-16 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | $2.84 | $2.66 | $3.02 |
| 2025-08-18 | $2.83 | $2.65 | $3.02 |
The current market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.625, indicating potential downward pressure on prices. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.77, while resistance is at 3.1. With the ML price forecast suggesting a decrease of 0.28% and a trading range of 2.64 to 3.0, traders should be cautious of volatility in this range.
The cooling demand driven by weather forecasts may further contribute to price declines. Consider monitoring regional cooling degree days (CDD) as they indicate higher demand for natural gas for power generation, particularly in the South and West regions.
The fundamental balance indicates a significant increase in supply with a level of 9.40 BCFD, up by 5.80. This could lead to pressure on prices, particularly with the current bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas. Producers should consider adjusting their production plans accordingly.
Given the bearish market outlook, implementing hedging strategies may be prudent to mitigate potential revenue losses. With a focus on the production increase and cooler weather forecasts, producers should also evaluate their operational efficiencies to remain competitive.
With the current bearish sentiment and a forecasted price decrease in natural gas, consumers may experience cost fluctuations in the short term. The expected low heating demand due to cooler weather suggests that procurement strategies should focus on leveraging lower prices while ensuring supply reliability.
It is essential to monitor regional weather patterns, particularly the high cooling degree days (CDD) in the South and West, as they could affect demand spikes. Consumers should also consider hedging against potential price volatility in the coming weeks.
The market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish sentiment, high supply levels, and low demand forecasts. The fundamental balance indicates an oversupply situation, which is likely to keep pressure on prices in the near term.
Analysts should focus on the convergence of bearish indicators, including the sentiment score of -0.625 and the cooling weather outlook. The potential for price shifts may arise if demand unexpectedly increases or if geopolitical factors alter supply dynamics. Continuous monitoring of market news and sentiment will be crucial in anticipating potential outlook shifts.