Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.4 BCFD
MA(9): $2.94
MA(20): $3.06
MACD: -0.1377
Signal: -0.1231
Days since crossover: 18
Value: 34.87
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 124,103
Avg (20d): 138,641
Ratio: 0.9
%K: 14.93
%D: 12.78
ADX: 26.9
+DI: 12.21
-DI: 29.83
Value: -85.07
Upper: 3.4
Middle: 3.06
Lower: 2.72
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.0 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 102.5 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices increased to 11.281 EUR/MWh (+0.070). JKM prices increased to 11.930 USD/MMBtu (+0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.649 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-14
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-14
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-14
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.281 |
| OCT 25 | 11.359 |
| NOV 25 | 11.689 |
| DEC 25 | 11.839 |
| JAN 26 | 11.912 |
| FEB 26 | 11.930 |
| MAR 26 | 11.787 |
| APR 26 | 11.253 |
| MAY 26 | 11.069 |
| JUN 26 | 11.025 |
| JUL 26 | 11.040 |
| AUG 26 | 11.089 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.930 |
| OCT 25 | 11.620 |
| NOV 25 | 11.800 |
| DEC 25 | 12.150 |
| JAN 26 | 12.325 |
| FEB 26 | 12.310 |
| MAR 26 | 11.965 |
| APR 26 | 11.420 |
| MAY 26 | 11.265 |
| JUN 26 | 11.370 |
| JUL 26 | 11.480 |
| AUG 26 | 11.575 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-15 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-16 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.01 |
| 2025-08-17 | $2.84 | $2.66 | $3.02 |
| 2025-08-18 | $2.83 | $2.65 | $3.02 |
The current market data indicates a bearish sentiment with a technical interpretation scoring -3/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.76 and a resistance level at 3.09, suggesting potential price movements within this range. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.27%, which may present short-term trading opportunities, particularly if prices approach the support level. However, the overall market sentiment (score: -0.650) and the significant increase in fundamental balance (+5.80 BCFD) could lead to increased volatility and risks in trading positions.
Producers should consider the implications of the current market sentiment and the fundamental balance of 9.40 BCFD which shows a notable increase. This suggests a potential oversupply situation, impacting pricing strategies. With the news sentiment around natural gas prices easing to a 9-month low due to high output, producers may need to reassess their hedging strategies and production planning to mitigate risks associated with declining prices. Additionally, the cooling demand across all regions may affect consumption rates, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices as the market exhibits a bearish sentiment. The current fundamental balance of 9.40 BCFD indicates a possible oversupply, which could lead to lower prices; however, the cooling demand suggests a need for increased consumption, particularly in the South and West regions. As such, consumers should evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to protect against potential price spikes or supply reliability risks in the coming weeks.
The market presents a complex picture characterized by bearish sentiment across multiple indicators. The fundamental balance of 9.40 BCFD indicates a significant supply increase, while the cooling demand pattern across regions suggests a divergence in consumption needs. The overall sentiment score of -0.650 reinforces the bearish outlook, particularly for natural gas. Analysts should closely monitor these dynamics as they could shift the market outlook, especially if geopolitical factors or unexpected weather patterns arise.