Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.4 BCFD
MA(9): $2.94
MA(20): $3.06
MACD: -0.1374
Signal: -0.123
Days since crossover: 18
Value: 35.03
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 124,854
Avg (20d): 138,679
Ratio: 0.9
%K: 15.64
%D: 13.02
ADX: 26.9
+DI: 12.21
-DI: 29.83
Value: -84.36
Upper: 3.4
Middle: 3.06
Lower: 2.72
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.0 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 102.5 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices increased to 11.281 EUR/MWh (+0.070). JKM prices increased to 11.930 USD/MMBtu (+0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.649 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-14
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-14
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-14
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.281 |
| OCT 25 | 11.359 |
| NOV 25 | 11.689 |
| DEC 25 | 11.839 |
| JAN 26 | 11.912 |
| FEB 26 | 11.930 |
| MAR 26 | 11.787 |
| APR 26 | 11.253 |
| MAY 26 | 11.069 |
| JUN 26 | 11.025 |
| JUL 26 | 11.040 |
| AUG 26 | 11.089 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.930 |
| OCT 25 | 11.620 |
| NOV 25 | 11.800 |
| DEC 25 | 12.150 |
| JAN 26 | 12.325 |
| FEB 26 | 12.310 |
| MAR 26 | 11.965 |
| APR 26 | 11.420 |
| MAY 26 | 11.265 |
| JUN 26 | 11.370 |
| JUL 26 | 11.480 |
| AUG 26 | 11.575 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-15 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-16 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.01 |
| 2025-08-17 | $2.84 | $2.66 | $3.02 |
| 2025-08-18 | $2.83 | $2.65 | $3.02 |
Current market indicators suggest a bearish sentiment with a technical interpretation score of -3/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.76 and resistance at 3.09, signaling potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML Price Forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.27%, which could present short-term trading opportunities, especially if prices approach support levels. Be cautious of volatility as the overall sentiment remains bearish, driven by high production levels and low heating demand.
With a fundamental balance of 9.40 BCFD, indicating an increase of 5.80, producers may need to adjust production plans to align with demand fluctuations. The prevailing market sentiment could affect pricing strategies and hedging, especially given the negative sentiment scores for natural gas (-0.700). Companies should consider strategies to manage inventory levels effectively, especially with the anticipated low heating demand and the expected return of LNG flows.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the bearish market sentiment and low heating demand, which may affect procurement strategies. The cooling demand forecast suggests moderate energy needs; thus, consumers might find opportunities to negotiate favorable contracts. However, the increased production levels could lead to supply reliability risks, particularly if demand unexpectedly rises due to weather changes or geopolitical factors.
The energy market is currently influenced by a convergence of bearish factors, particularly high production levels and low demand, reflected in the fundamental balance of 9.40 BCFD. The overall sentiment score of -0.650 and negative news sentiment regarding natural gas point towards a cautious outlook. Analysts should monitor the cooling demand across regions, as this will be a key driver for short-term price movements. Potential shifts in sentiment could arise from geopolitical developments or unexpected weather changes.