Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.0 BCFD
MA(9): $2.95
MA(20): $3.06
MACD: -0.1348
Signal: -0.1225
Days since crossover: 18
Value: 37.07
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,880
Avg (20d): 130,590
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 23.46
%D: 15.63
ADX: 26.73
+DI: 13.17
-DI: 30.34
Value: -76.54
Upper: 3.4
Middle: 3.06
Lower: 2.73
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.1 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.3 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 108.1 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices increased to 11.281 EUR/MWh (+0.070). JKM prices increased to 11.930 USD/MMBtu (+0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.649 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-14
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-14
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-14
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.281 |
| OCT 25 | 11.359 |
| NOV 25 | 11.689 |
| DEC 25 | 11.839 |
| JAN 26 | 11.912 |
| FEB 26 | 11.930 |
| MAR 26 | 11.787 |
| APR 26 | 11.253 |
| MAY 26 | 11.069 |
| JUN 26 | 11.025 |
| JUL 26 | 11.040 |
| AUG 26 | 11.089 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.930 |
| OCT 25 | 11.620 |
| NOV 25 | 11.800 |
| DEC 25 | 12.150 |
| JAN 26 | 12.325 |
| FEB 26 | 12.310 |
| MAR 26 | 11.965 |
| APR 26 | 11.420 |
| MAY 26 | 11.265 |
| JUN 26 | 11.370 |
| JUL 26 | 11.480 |
| AUG 26 | 11.575 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-15 | $2.84 | $2.66 | $3.02 |
| 2025-08-16 | $2.84 | $2.66 | $3.02 |
| 2025-08-17 | $2.86 | $2.68 | $3.04 |
| 2025-08-18 | $2.85 | $2.67 | $3.04 |
| 2025-08-19 | $2.85 | $2.67 | $3.04 |
The current market sentiment is bearish with a technical score of -3/5, indicating a cautious outlook. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.76 while resistance is at 3.09. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential price action.
The ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.06%, indicating short-term volatility might be limited within the range of 2.66 to 3.02. This could present opportunities for short-term trades, but caution is warranted given the overall bearish sentiment.
The fundamental balance shows a decrease to 4.00 BCFD, which may prompt producers to consider adjustments in production levels. The bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas, with a sentiment score of -0.700, suggests that market conditions may not favor aggressive output increases.
Producers should evaluate hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines and consider the implications of high output levels on pricing dynamics.
With the weather outlook indicating high cooling demand across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The bearish sentiment and the price forecast suggest that prices could remain under pressure, providing a window for potential procurement opportunities.
However, the risk of supply reliability should be considered, especially with the current market sentiment. Consumers may want to assess their current contracts and explore options for locking in prices to avoid future volatility.
The convergence of a bearish market sentiment and a technical outlook of -3/5 points to a potentially challenging environment for both producers and consumers. The key driving factors appear to be high output levels and cooling demand, which are balancing against bearish sentiment in the market.
Analysts should focus on monitoring price movements around the Fibonacci levels of 2.76 (support) and 3.09 (resistance) as indicators of market shifts. The overall sentiment suggests that any bullish signals may be short-lived unless supported by significant changes in demand or geopolitical developments.