Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.0 BCFD
MA(9): $2.93
MA(20): $3.01
MACD: -0.1298
Signal: -0.1255
Days since crossover: 20
Value: 37.9
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 4,288
Avg (20d): 129,479
Ratio: 0.03
%K: 21.09
%D: 25.12
ADX: 26.48
+DI: 16.52
-DI: 26.89
Value: -78.91
Upper: 3.23
Middle: 3.01
Lower: 2.78
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.1 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.3 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 108.1 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.011 EUR/MWh (-0.159). JKM prices decreased to 11.893 USD/MMBtu (-0.017). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.882 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-17
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-17
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-17
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.011 |
| OCT 25 | 10.801 |
| NOV 25 | 11.160 |
| DEC 25 | 11.320 |
| JAN 26 | 11.386 |
| FEB 26 | 11.403 |
| MAR 26 | 11.253 |
| APR 26 | 10.751 |
| MAY 26 | 10.577 |
| JUN 26 | 10.533 |
| JUL 26 | 10.532 |
| AUG 26 | 10.587 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.893 |
| OCT 25 | 10.950 |
| NOV 25 | 11.200 |
| DEC 25 | 11.565 |
| JAN 26 | 11.740 |
| FEB 26 | 11.720 |
| MAR 26 | 11.345 |
| APR 26 | 10.860 |
| MAY 26 | 10.735 |
| JUN 26 | 10.840 |
| JUL 26 | 10.920 |
| AUG 26 | 11.020 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | $2.91 | $2.73 | $3.1 |
| 2025-08-17 | $2.93 | $2.74 | $3.11 |
| 2025-08-18 | $2.93 | $2.74 | $3.11 |
| 2025-08-19 | $2.93 | $2.74 | $3.11 |
| 2025-08-20 | $2.92 | $2.74 | $3.11 |
Current market indicators suggest a bearish sentiment with a technical interpretation score of -3/5. The Fibonacci support level stands at 2.76, while resistance is at 3.09. This indicates potential price fluctuations within this range.
With an expected price decline of 0.18% for the next day, traders should be cautious of short-term volatility. The overall market sentiment is bearish, which may present both risks and opportunities, particularly for short-selling strategies.
The fundamental balance is reported at 4.00 BCFD with a slight decrease of -5.40. This indicates a potential oversupply situation that could pressure prices further down.
Producers should consider adjusting their production planning and explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with the current market sentiment. The news sentiment surrounding natural gas prices is particularly negative, which could impact future production decisions.
Given the current weather outlook, cooling demand is expected to dominate, particularly in the South and West, with low heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest. This could lead to supply reliability risks in certain regions.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices, which are currently experiencing downward pressure due to oversupply. Strategic procurement and hedging may be beneficial to mitigate these impacts.
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment across multiple indicators, including technical scores and news sentiment analysis. The fundamental balance indicates potential oversupply, while the cooling demand forecast suggests a shift in consumption patterns.
Key driving factors include near-record output levels and geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil prices. Analysts should monitor these trends closely, as they may signal significant shifts in market dynamics and future price movements.