Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.0 BCFD
MA(9): $2.86
MA(20): $2.97
MACD: -0.1356
Signal: -0.1282
Days since crossover: 22
Value: 34.31
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,378
Avg (20d): 130,639
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 7.57
%D: 15.71
ADX: 27.59
+DI: 14.44
-DI: 28.77
Value: -92.43
Upper: 3.2
Middle: 2.97
Lower: 2.74
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.1 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.3 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 108.1 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.025 EUR/MWh (-0.003). JKM prices remained stable to 11.893 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.868 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-20
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-20
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-20
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.025 |
| OCT 25 | 10.817 |
| NOV 25 | 11.175 |
| DEC 25 | 11.349 |
| JAN 26 | 11.409 |
| FEB 26 | 11.425 |
| MAR 26 | 11.266 |
| APR 26 | 10.733 |
| MAY 26 | 10.560 |
| JUN 26 | 10.513 |
| JUL 26 | 10.538 |
| AUG 26 | 10.593 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.893 |
| OCT 25 | 10.915 |
| NOV 25 | 11.160 |
| DEC 25 | 11.530 |
| JAN 26 | 11.675 |
| FEB 26 | 11.635 |
| MAR 26 | 11.295 |
| APR 26 | 10.785 |
| MAY 26 | 10.635 |
| JUN 26 | 10.740 |
| JUL 26 | 10.845 |
| AUG 26 | 10.950 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-21 | $2.75 | $2.57 | $2.92 |
| 2025-08-22 | $2.73 | $2.56 | $2.91 |
| 2025-08-23 | $2.74 | $2.56 | $2.91 |
| 2025-08-24 | $2.75 | $2.57 | $2.92 |
| 2025-08-25 | $2.75 | $2.57 | $2.92 |
Current market conditions suggest a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -3/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.72 while resistance is at 3.06. Traders should be alert for potential price movements within the 2.57 to 2.92 range, with a predicted downward trend of 0.11%. The convergence of cooling demand and bearish news sentiment may present short-term volatility risks that could impact trading strategies.
The current fundamental balance indicates a slight oversupply at 4.00 BCFD, with a notable decrease of -5.40. This, coupled with the bearish market sentiment reflected in the news sentiment score of -0.575, suggests that producers may need to reassess hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses. The cooling weather forecasts and record output levels could imply a need for strategic adjustments in production planning to align with demand forecasts.
With low heating demand expected and a cooling-dominated weather outlook, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices, which are currently at near nine-month lows. The fundamental balance indicates ample supply, which may provide some stability; however, the bearish sentiment in the market suggests that procurement strategies should be evaluated to ensure supply reliability and manage budget impacts.
The market is currently influenced by several bearish factors, including a significant oversupply indicated by the fundamental balance of 4.00 BCFD and a negative news sentiment score. The cooling weather patterns and high production levels are dampening prices, with a forecasted decline in the near term. Analysts should closely monitor these dynamics as they may signal shifts in market conditions that could affect pricing strategies and investment decisions.