Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.0 BCFD
MA(9): $2.81
MA(20): $2.93
MACD: -0.1372
Signal: -0.1306
Days since crossover: 24
Value: 34.09
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 74,051
Avg (20d): 140,368
Ratio: 0.53
%K: 0.65
%D: 10.3
ADX: 27.13
+DI: 15.91
-DI: 27.4
Value: -99.35
Upper: 3.18
Middle: 2.93
Lower: 2.69
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.1 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.3 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 108.1 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices increased to 11.211 EUR/MWh (+0.111). JKM prices increased to 11.440 USD/MMBtu (+0.330). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.229 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-22
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-08-22
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-22
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.211 |
| OCT 25 | 11.405 |
| NOV 25 | 11.694 |
| DEC 25 | 11.860 |
| JAN 26 | 11.914 |
| FEB 26 | 11.930 |
| MAR 26 | 11.771 |
| APR 26 | 11.135 |
| MAY 26 | 10.955 |
| JUN 26 | 10.919 |
| JUL 26 | 10.926 |
| AUG 26 | 10.979 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.440 |
| NOV 25 | 11.690 |
| DEC 25 | 12.045 |
| JAN 26 | 12.195 |
| FEB 26 | 12.175 |
| MAR 26 | 11.810 |
| APR 26 | 11.210 |
| MAY 26 | 11.075 |
| JUN 26 | 11.175 |
| JUL 26 | 11.245 |
| AUG 26 | 11.350 |
| SEP 26 | 11.420 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-22 | $2.8 | $2.62 | $2.98 |
| 2025-08-23 | $2.81 | $2.63 | $2.99 |
| 2025-08-24 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-25 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-26 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $2.99 |
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish sentiment, with a technical score of -3/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.69 and resistance at 3.03, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range.
With the ML price forecast predicting a 0.80% decline, traders should be cautious of short-term opportunities, particularly in light of the cooling weather impacting demand. Volatility may arise if prices approach either Fibonacci level, presenting both risks and opportunities for strategic entry or exit points.
The fundamental balance shows a notable decrease of 4.00 BCFD, suggesting a potential oversupply in the market. This, combined with the negative sentiment surrounding natural gas demand, could impact production planning and pricing strategies.
Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential revenue losses, especially as cooling demand is anticipated in the coming weeks. The current market sentiment, reflected in news articles, indicates a cautious approach towards maintaining production levels amidst ample inventory.
With the forecast showing low heating demand and a cooling outlook, consumers can expect stable supply in the short term. However, the potential for cost fluctuations exists due to current market dynamics and price forecasts.
It may be prudent for consumers to explore procurement strategies that leverage current low prices, while remaining vigilant to any sudden shifts in market sentiment that could affect supply reliability.
The energy market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and neutral news sentiment. The technical indicators and fundamental balance highlight an oversupply situation, with a significant emphasis on weather patterns driving demand fluctuations.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the cooling demand forecast and monitor how it interacts with production levels and inventory status. The divergence in sentiment between natural gas and crude oil suggests potential shifts in market dynamics that could impact future outlooks.