Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.5 BCFD
MA(9): $2.81
MA(20): $2.93
MACD: -0.1367
Signal: -0.1305
Days since crossover: 24
Value: 34.29
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 115,270
Avg (20d): 142,429
Ratio: 0.81
%K: 1.96
%D: 10.74
ADX: 27.13
+DI: 15.91
-DI: 27.4
Value: -98.04
Upper: 3.18
Middle: 2.93
Lower: 2.69
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.4 | 106.7 | 101.3 | 100.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.63 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.9 | 107.8 | 105.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 41.0 | 43.7 | 42.37 |
| Residential & Commercial | 8.9 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| LNG Exports | 15.5 | 16.3 | 12.6 | 11.93 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.23 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.77 |
| Total Demand | 106.1 | 102.5 | 99.2 | 96.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.5 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.83 |
TTF prices increased to 11.267 EUR/MWh (+0.056). JKM prices increased to 11.550 USD/MMBtu (+0.110). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.283 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-23
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-08-23
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-23
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.267 |
| OCT 25 | 11.639 |
| NOV 25 | 11.884 |
| DEC 25 | 12.040 |
| JAN 26 | 12.093 |
| FEB 26 | 12.092 |
| MAR 26 | 11.925 |
| APR 26 | 11.279 |
| MAY 26 | 11.101 |
| JUN 26 | 11.054 |
| JUL 26 | 11.069 |
| AUG 26 | 11.114 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.550 |
| NOV 25 | 11.890 |
| DEC 25 | 12.215 |
| JAN 26 | 12.345 |
| FEB 26 | 12.290 |
| MAR 26 | 11.935 |
| APR 26 | 11.330 |
| MAY 26 | 11.185 |
| JUN 26 | 11.270 |
| JUL 26 | 11.360 |
| AUG 26 | 11.455 |
| SEP 26 | 11.525 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.89 |
| 2025-08-24 | $2.73 | $2.55 | $2.9 |
| 2025-08-25 | $2.72 | $2.55 | $2.89 |
| 2025-08-26 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.89 |
| 2025-08-27 | $2.73 | $2.56 | $2.9 |
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -3/5. Traders should be aware of the Fibonacci support level at 2.69 and resistance at 3.03, which may act as key points for price movements.
With a ML price forecast indicating a slight increase of 0.62%, traders should look for short-term volatility around the range of 2.54 to 2.89. The overall neutral market sentiment suggests caution in entering large positions.
The fundamental balance of 6.50 BCFD with a change of +2.50 indicates an increase in supply, which may pressure prices further. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning to align with the anticipated lower prices.
With the bearish news sentiment surrounding natural gas, particularly regarding high output and storage levels, it is prudent to implement hedging strategies to mitigate potential revenue impacts.
Given the low heating demand expected and a neutral market sentiment, consumers can anticipate stable pricing in the short term, but should remain vigilant regarding supply reliability risks as demand fluctuates with weather changes.
It may be beneficial for consumers to explore procurement strategies to take advantage of current price levels, especially since prices are projected to remain within the range of 2.54 to 2.89.
The energy market is currently influenced by a mix of factors, with a moderately bearish technical outlook and a neutral overall sentiment. The fundamental balance suggests increased supply, while weather forecasts indicate a predominance of cooling demand across regions.
Analysts should focus on the potential shifts in market dynamics due to the high levels of natural gas output and the implications for price stability. The convergence of these factors suggests that while prices may see short-term fluctuations, the overall outlook remains cautious.