Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.5 BCFD
MA(9): $2.8
MA(20): $2.92
MACD: -0.1437
Signal: -0.1331
Days since crossover: 25
Value: 32.41
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 3,760
Avg (20d): 139,125
Ratio: 0.03
%K: 2.32
%D: 9.38
ADX: 27.46
+DI: 15.32
-DI: 29.59
Value: -97.68
Upper: 3.19
Middle: 2.92
Lower: 2.64
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.4 | 106.7 | 101.3 | 100.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.63 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.9 | 107.8 | 105.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 41.0 | 43.7 | 42.37 |
| Residential & Commercial | 8.9 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| LNG Exports | 15.5 | 16.3 | 12.6 | 11.93 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.23 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.77 |
| Total Demand | 106.1 | 102.5 | 99.2 | 96.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.5 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.83 |
TTF prices increased to 11.267 EUR/MWh (+0.056). JKM prices increased to 11.550 USD/MMBtu (+0.110). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.283 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-24
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-08-24
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-24
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.267 |
| OCT 25 | 11.639 |
| NOV 25 | 11.884 |
| DEC 25 | 12.040 |
| JAN 26 | 12.093 |
| FEB 26 | 12.092 |
| MAR 26 | 11.925 |
| APR 26 | 11.279 |
| MAY 26 | 11.101 |
| JUN 26 | 11.054 |
| JUL 26 | 11.069 |
| AUG 26 | 11.114 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.550 |
| NOV 25 | 11.890 |
| DEC 25 | 12.215 |
| JAN 26 | 12.345 |
| FEB 26 | 12.290 |
| MAR 26 | 11.935 |
| APR 26 | 11.330 |
| MAY 26 | 11.185 |
| JUN 26 | 11.270 |
| JUL 26 | 11.360 |
| AUG 26 | 11.455 |
| SEP 26 | 11.525 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.89 |
| 2025-08-24 | $2.73 | $2.55 | $2.9 |
| 2025-08-25 | $2.72 | $2.55 | $2.89 |
| 2025-08-26 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.88 |
| 2025-08-27 | $2.73 | $2.56 | $2.9 |
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -3/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.63, while resistance is noted at 2.99. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, especially given the ML price forecast indicating a slight upward movement of 0.62% within a range of 2.54 to 2.89. The fundamental balance shows an increase of 2.50 BCFD, indicating a growing supply that could pressure prices further downwards.
Producers should take note of the bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas, as indicated by the negative sentiment score of -0.600. With a fundamental balance of 6.50 BCFD, there is a need for strategic adjustments in production planning to avoid excess supply. The neutral news sentiment suggests that while immediate risks from demand fluctuations exist, there are no significant geopolitical threats at present. This scenario may warrant careful hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the overall bearish market sentiment in natural gas. The cooling demand forecast indicates low heating needs but moderate cooling requirements, which may stabilize prices temporarily. However, with the fundamental balance showing a notable increase, there could be supply reliability risks if demand unexpectedly rises. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price volatility.
The market presents a complex picture characterized by a bearish sentiment in natural gas, with a fundamental balance indicating increased supply. The cooling demand across regions suggests that while short-term price movements may be limited, the overall supply dynamics could lead to downward pressure on prices. Analysts should monitor the potential shifts in ML forecasts and news sentiment, particularly regarding geopolitical developments and infrastructure changes that could alter the current trends.